Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8873

Bill Overview

Title: Presidential Election Reform Act

Description: This bill revises the process of casting and counting electoral votes for presidential elections. The bill specifies that the choice of electors must occur in accordance with the laws of the state enacted prior to election day. Next, the bill specifies that the voting time for a state's presidential election may only be extended due to a catastrophic event. Catastrophic event means a major natural disaster, act of terrorism, or widespread power outage if it (1) prevents a substantial portion of a state's electorate from casting a ballot on election day, or (2) causes a substantial number of ballots already cast in a state to be destroyed or rendered unreadable. Additionally, the bill requires each state's governor to certify the appointment of electors for the state. Further, the bill provides for expedited judicial review for an action brought by an aggrieved presidential or vice-presidential candidate with respect to the issuance or transmission of a certificate of appointment. The bill revises the framework for the joint session of Congress to count electoral votes and make a formal declaration of which candidates have been elected President and Vice President. Among other changes, the bill (1) specifies that the role of the presiding officer (the Vice President or, in the absence of the Vice President, the President pro tempore) during the joint session shall be ministerial in nature, and (2) raises the objection threshold in Congress to at least one-third of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Sponsors: Rep. Lofgren, Zoe [D-CA-19]

Target Audience

Population: registered voters in the United States

Estimated Size: 168000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

School Teacher (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I like the idea of having a clear set of rules laid out before elections.
  • I'm concerned about what constitutes a catastrophic event; elections should be accessible to all.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Software Developer (California)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Reforming how elections are counted is a step in the right direction.
  • I'm worried this won't address cybersecurity threats thoroughly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Retired Nurse (Florida)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about not being able to vote if a storm hits here, and it's not deemed 'catastrophic.'
  • I approve of steps that prepare us for election integrity.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Journalist (New York)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This will help bring some clarity to the election coverage process.
  • Raising the threshold for Congress objecting is positive.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Construction Worker (Pennsylvania)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm doubting this will change my ability to vote in elections.
  • Looks like a lot of political talk, not sure of real impact on the ground.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Small Business Owner (Ohio)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's good that Governors have to verify electors, ensuring checks.
  • Expedited review could mean swifter conclusions in contentious elections.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Truck Driver (Georgia)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The threshold for extending voting makes some sense, but needs clarity.
  • Pleased with guidelines on appointing electors, needs strong oversight.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

University Student (Michigan)

Age: 23 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Having laws set well before election day is sensible.
  • I'm excited to vote but hope this doesn't lead to complications or denials.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Political Analyst (New York)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This reform is a welcome change to clarify roles and processes.
  • However, the impact on actual voter turnout remains questionable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired Lawyer (Colorado)

Age: 67 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The legal perspectives of this law seem sound and needed.
  • Could have stronger measures for voting accessibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $117500000 (Low: $80000000, High: $150000000)

Year 2: $117500000 (Low: $80000000, High: $150000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations