Bill Overview
Title: SAFES Act
Description: This bill allows individual taxpayers a refundable tax credit for 90% of the aggregate amount paid for (1) any gun safe, for taxable years beginning before 2030; and (2) any gun safe, for taxable years beginning after 2029, determined to be highly effective in preventing unauthorized access. The bill limits the amount of the credit and denies the credit for any used safes.
Sponsors: Rep. Williams, Nikema [D-GA-5]
Target Audience
Population: People globally with registered firearms who might consider purchasing gun safes
Estimated Size: 72000000
- The bill is specifically about providing a tax credit for purchasing gun safes.
- It doesn't mandate the purchase of gun safes, it incentivizes the purchase by offering a refund.
- The primary group affected will be gun owners who store their firearms at home.
- The incentive structure may encourage more gun owners to purchase safes, especially new ones, to benefit from the tax credit.
- This legislation is likely aimed at enhancing safety by promoting safe storage of firearms to prevent accidents or theft.
Reasoning
- The SAFES Act has a large target group, primarily focusing on American gun owners, estimated at around 72 million individuals. The policy provides a 90% tax credit for purchasing gun safes, which encourages gun owners to improve safety by storing firearms securely.
- Given the $720 million yearly budget, assuming an average tax credit of around $500 per safe, approximately 1.44 million gun owners could benefit yearly. This is a moderate portion of the overall target group, necessitating diverse representation in our simulation.
- While many gun owners may be receptive, the effectiveness of the policy will also depend on individual financial situations, current safety measures, and personal values around gun safety.
- Those without firearms or who already have adequate safes won't be affected, but gun owners considering a safe purchase may find the policy attractive.
- An important consideration is the potential long-term impact on wellbeing scores, as increased safety from reduced firearm incidents could improve general life satisfaction.
Simulated Interviews
Construction Manager (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I've been thinking about buying a gun safe for some time, but the cost always deterred me.
- This tax credit would definitely make it more affordable for me to secure my guns better.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Software Engineer (California)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this is a step in the right direction for gun safety.
- Even though I don't own a gun, I feel society benefits from such policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Police Officer (Florida)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I've already invested in the best gun safes, so the policy won't change much for me.
- But it's good to see initiatives encouraging more people to store guns safely.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Elementary School Teacher (Ohio)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I've been wanting to upgrade my gun storage for better security.
- This policy would make a new safe financially feasible for me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Veteran (New York)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My safes are pretty old, and I've been thinking about upgrading them.
- This credit is the push I need to ensure my guns are stored safely.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Nurse (Georgia)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With children around, I've been meaning to enhance our gun safety.
- This policy would definitely help in purchasing a larger and more secure safe.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Freelance Photographer (Illinois)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's reassuring to see policies that push for responsible gun ownership.
- I'm not a gun owner, so it doesn't impact me personally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Store Manager (Virginia)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'd love to upgrade to a more secure safe, especially with young kids around.
- The tax credit makes this feasible, considering my budget constraints.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Pennsylvania)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I already have everything set up for safe storage, so this policy doesn't change much for me.
- However, it's good for those who haven't invested in gun safes yet.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Lawyer (Massachusetts)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I take gun safety very seriously and this policy provides a sensible incentive.
- Might consider getting a newer, more advanced safe.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Year 2: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Year 3: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Year 5: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Year 10: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Year 100: $720000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $1440000000)
Key Considerations
- The demand for gun safes could significantly outpace projections if gun owners act en masse to exploit the tax credit.
- Market prices for gun safes may rise due to increased demand, affecting the average credit claimed.
- The economic fallout from unauthorized access to firearms may see downstream benefits that are indirect and not captured in immediate fiscal analyses.