Bill Overview
Title: Accelerating Arms Transfers to Taiwan Act
Description: This bill adds Taiwan to the statutory list of high priority countries for transferring defense articles, directs the Department of Defense to use the Special Defense Acquisition Fund for defense articles to Taiwan, and eliminates restrictions on the stockpiling of defense articles in Taiwan.
Sponsors: Rep. Chabot, Steve [R-OH-1]
Target Audience
Population: People in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 100000000
- The bill pertains to the transfer of defense articles, which directly impacts the defense sector.
- Taiwan is directly affected as it is the recipient of these defense articles.
- The Taiwanese military and defense authorities will be impacted as they will likely receive and need to integrate new military equipment.
- The local Taiwanese population could indirectly be impacted due to changes in national security posture.
- Countries in the region may face geopolitical impacts due to changes in Taiwan's defense capabilities.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects the defense sector in the US, particularly companies involved in manufacturing and logistics of defense articles.
- US foreign policy stakeholders and defense contractors stand to be impacted through changes in funding and prioritization.
- The policy has limited direct consequences for the broader US population, which will primarily experience indirect impacts.
- Not all residents may feel changes in self-reported wellbeing, as the focus is on a specific economic sector.
- Economic benefits from increased defense production could lead to improved wellbeing for those involved in the sector, although concerns about geopolitical risks may moderate this effect.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor (Arlington, Virginia)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy will be beneficial for our sector as increased demand means job stability and potential for growth.
- However, there's also a concern that this will escalate tensions with China, potentially creating a riskier global environment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Logistics Coordinator (San Diego, California)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill could lead to more business and job security for us, but I worry about potential geopolitical tensions.
- We need to consider the consequences on international relations long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy underscores the strategic importance of Taiwan to US interests.
- The increased support may stabilize Taiwan's defense but could also heighten regional tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Software Engineer (Atlanta, Georgia)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think this policy will affect me directly since my work is not related to defense.
- I'm concerned about international tension, but my day-to-day life remains the same.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy is likely beneficial for maintaining Taiwan's security, which I support.
- There's a personal concern about heightened global tensions, as I've seen from my former career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 4 |
School Teacher (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I understand the strategic need, this policy seems far removed from my daily concerns.
- I only worry about prolonged geopolitical tensions trickling down to affect us economically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Military Personnel (Dallas, Texas)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased support for Taiwan is crucial from a military perspective.
- However, increased commitments could stretch resources and strain personnel.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Marketing Specialist (New York, New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is not something that directly impacts my life or work.
- I am more concerned about global stability and economic impacts than the specifics of this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Engineer in Aerospace Industry (Huntsville, Alabama)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There's a good chance this policy could result in increased work and opportunities for my company.
- However, we must be careful of how this impacts international relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Economic Researcher (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- From an economic standpoint, this policy can drive growth in the US defense sector.
- Concerns remain about wider geopolitical outcomes affecting markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $2100000000 (Low: $1600000000, High: $2600000000)
Year 3: $2200000000 (Low: $1700000000, High: $2700000000)
Year 5: $2300000000 (Low: $1800000000, High: $2800000000)
Year 10: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 100: $3000000000 (Low: $2500000000, High: $3500000000)
Key Considerations
- Shifts in U.S.-Taiwan relations and potential geopolitical tension with nearby countries.
- Ensuring compliance with international arms transfer regulations.
- Potential logistical challenges in transporting increased volumes of defense articles.