Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8823

Bill Overview

Title: Safe Zones Act of 2022

Description: This bill makes changes to procedures relating to seeking asylum, including by requiring the Department of State to establish safe zones in which an individual may apply for asylum. The State Department must establish at least three safe zones along the U.S.-Mexico border and one safe zone in Guatemala.

Sponsors: Rep. Gonzalez, Vicente [D-TX-15]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border and in Guatemala

Estimated Size: 5000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Border Patrol Agent (El Paso, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe the safe zones could streamline the asylum process and improve safety both for seekers and border agents.
  • There might be an increase in paperwork and responsibilities as people's claims are processed at these zones.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Immigration Lawyer (San Antonio, TX)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The establishment of safe zones could reduce the number of people entering dangerous situations to claim asylum.
  • It might make my job more predictable as processing becomes more centralized.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Asylum Seeker (Guatemala City, Guatemala)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If I can safely apply for asylum here in Guatemala, it reduces my need to undertake a perilous journey.
  • I fear the zones might be overwhelmed and my case could be delayed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 3
Year 2 6 3
Year 3 7 3
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 3

Public Health Worker (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about how increased processing at borders might bring health challenges for populations on both sides.
  • The policy might alleviate some stress on local health systems if it prevents dangerous crossings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 8

NGO Worker - Immigration Services (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 33 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Safe zones might improve efficiency in processing asylum claims and reduce risks for migrants.
  • However, I'm concerned about the resource availability and whether zones will cope with demand.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Aspiring Asylum Seeker (Juárez, Mexico)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Creating a safe zone might finally provide a door to safety for my family and me without risking our lives.
  • Without this policy, we remain in limbo with fear and uncertainty.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Community Organizer (McAllen, TX)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I welcome efforts to make asylum processes safer, but we need transparency in how these zones will operate and be resourced.
  • Community involvement in planning is crucial to avoid repeating past failures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The budgets appear sufficient but linking costs directly to better outcomes remains to be seen.
  • The implementation success will depend heavily on interagency coordination and collaboration with NGOs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Volunteer - Immigration Rights Group (Dallas, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Safe zones are a partial solution, they won't address root causes of migration but may help reduce immediate risks asylum seekers face.
  • Resources could be diverted from direct relief efforts, posing challenges.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Human Resources at a detention facility (Tucson, AZ)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Safe zones may relieve pressure on facilities like ours, allowing for more humane conditions and operations.
  • There might also be employment implications as staffing needs change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $400000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $450000000)

Year 2: $250000000 (Low: $225000000, High: $275000000)

Year 3: $250000000 (Low: $225000000, High: $275000000)

Year 5: $250000000 (Low: $225000000, High: $275000000)

Year 10: $250000000 (Low: $225000000, High: $275000000)

Year 100: $250000000 (Low: $225000000, High: $275000000)

Key Considerations