Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8814

Bill Overview

Title: Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn Children from Late-Term Abortions Act

Description: This bill establishes a new criminal offense for performing or attempting to perform an abortion if the probable gestational age of the fetus is 15 weeks or more. A violator is subject to criminal penalties—a fine, a prison term of up to five years, or both. The bill provides exceptions for an abortion (1) that is necessary to save the life of the pregnant woman, or (2) when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. A physician who performs or attempts to perform an abortion under an exception must comply with specified requirements. A woman who undergoes a prohibited abortion may not be prosecuted for violating or conspiring to violate the provisions of this bill.

Sponsors: Rep. Smith, Christopher H. [R-NJ-4]

Target Audience

Population: People seeking abortions at 15 weeks or later gestation

Estimated Size: 31000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Graphic Designer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not in a position to have a child right now, and this policy makes it even harder. I feel trapped.
  • I worry about my future and how I can provide a good life for a child when I'm struggling myself.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 4
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 7

Teacher (Austin, TX)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned this bill might make it difficult for women with health complications like myself to get necessary medical care.
  • While I'm not directly affected now, it's the potential future implications that worry me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

College Student (Houston, TX)

Age: 24 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Accidents happen, and the thought of not having options if I were to need one in the future is terrifying.
  • I support a woman's right to choose, and this feels like a step backward.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Healthcare Worker (Chicago, IL)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My main concern is the potential for criminal charges which could affect my career.
  • Women's reproductive health options are integral to my work, and limiting those is concerning.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 7 7

Policy Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe protecting the unborn is crucial, and this policy is a step in the right direction.
  • I'm interested in seeing how this will be implemented and its societal impact.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Waitress (Miami, FL)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm scared and overwhelmed. Traveling for an abortion was never part of the plan.
  • I wish there were more support and understanding for women in my situation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 2 3
Year 2 3 4
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 6 6

College Student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It worries me to think of friends who might be impacted and left without choices.
  • This policy feels like it's limiting our control over our own bodies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Attorney (Denver, CO)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy adds unnecessary legal barriers and the potential criminalization of a medical procedure worries me.
  • I believe it's an infringement on women's rights and autonomy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Business Owner (Boston, MA)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the kind of message we're sending to our daughters with such restrictive policies.
  • Women's access to necessary healthcare should be preserved.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 8

Nurse (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about how this affects the responsibilities and pressures nurses face in reproductive health clinics.
  • We need more support and less legal oversight of medical procedures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $70000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)

Year 2: $72000000 (Low: $51000000, High: $103000000)

Year 3: $74000000 (Low: $52000000, High: $106000000)

Year 5: $78000000 (Low: $55000000, High: $112000000)

Year 10: $85000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $120000000)

Year 100: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Key Considerations