Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8802

Bill Overview

Title: Public Lands and Waters Climate Leadership Act of 2022

Description: This bill addresses greenhouse gas emissions, including by restricting fossil fuel leasing and permitting on public lands.

Sponsors: Rep. Grijalva, Raúl M. [D-AZ-3]

Target Audience

Population: People dependent on industries related to fossil fuels and those impacted by climate change

Estimated Size: 25000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Oil rig worker (Houston, Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerned about job security and future employment prospects.
  • Worried about economic implications for community and family.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 2 4

Environmental Scientist (Denver, Colorado)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sees the policy as a positive step towards combating climate change.
  • Believes it provides long-term environmental and health benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Oil Company Executive (Midland, Texas)

Age: 54 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Views the policy as a threat to the industry's viability.
  • Believes it might lead to reduced profits and layoffs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 5 8
Year 3 4 8
Year 5 3 7
Year 10 3 7
Year 20 4 6

Solar Panel Installer (San Francisco, California)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supports the policy as it potentially leads to more jobs in renewable sectors.
  • Sees personal career growth and job stability opportunities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 8

Retired Coal Miner (Billings, Montana)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about the economic impact on his town.
  • Unsure how younger community members will find employment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 5 5

Climate Activist (Phoenix, Arizona)

Age: 33 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Encouraged by the implications for reducing greenhouse gases.
  • Feels hopeful about long-term climate health.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Renewable Energy Consultant (Grand Junction, Colorado)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Believes the policy opens new business opportunities.
  • Optimistic about the shift to renewable energy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 9

Coal Plant Operator (Cheyenne, Wyoming)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Fears losing her job and struggles to see alternatives.
  • Worried about her family's future financial security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 5

Public School Teacher (Miami, Florida)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supports efforts to mitigate climate change for future generations.
  • Worries about sea-level rise affecting local schools.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Natural Gas Distributor (Charleston, West Virginia)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about job security and transition to new sectors.
  • Feels uncertainty about community's economic future.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $6000000000)

Year 2: $5200000000 (Low: $4100000000, High: $6200000000)

Year 3: $5400000000 (Low: $4200000000, High: $6400000000)

Year 5: $5800000000 (Low: $4500000000, High: $6800000000)

Year 10: $7000000000 (Low: $5400000000, High: $8600000000)

Year 100: $30000000000 (Low: $24000000000, High: $36000000000)

Key Considerations