Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8781

Bill Overview

Title: Ensuring Accurate Postal Rates Act

Description: This bill directs the Postal Regulatory Commission to review and potentially modify the market-dominant ratemaking system rules in light of the USPS Fairness Act, which canceled unpaid U.S. Postal Service obligations.

Sponsors: Rep. Connolly, Gerald E. [D-VA-11]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals using postal services

Estimated Size: 300000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Farmer (Rural Iowa)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I rely heavily on USPS to send my produce to local buyers.
  • Changes in postal rates could really squeeze my already tight margins.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 2

Small business owner (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any adjustments to postal rates would affect my shipping costs directly.
  • I hope the policy leads to fair rates that don't disrupt my business operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 6 3

Freelance writer (New York, NY)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I use USPS for mailing articles to clients, but rate changes shouldn't impact me much.
  • If rates increase, I might switch to digital submissions more.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Non-profit manager (Seattle, WA)

Age: 46 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our operations can be heavily influenced by any postal rate increase.
  • We rely on bulk mailing to reach our donors and stakeholders.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 3
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 5 2
Year 20 4 2

Retired teacher (Austin, TX)

Age: 53 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I mainly use USPS for family letters, so any price changes should be manageable.
  • As long as basic letter costs don't rise significantly, I will be unaffected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Banker (Chicago, IL)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I mostly deal with electronic payments, so postal rate changes are less relevant.
  • Occasional postal service for personal use won't affect me much.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 7

Stay-at-home parent (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • USPS is my main channel for communicating with distant family.
  • Reasonable rates help me stay connected; I hope the policy maintains this.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Private tutor (Miami, FL)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I predominately use digital methods but occasionally need to mail materials.
  • I foresee little change unless there's a substantial rate hike.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Entrepreneur (Boston, MA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any increase in local delivery rates could reduce my competitiveness.
  • I depend on USPS for affordable and reliable delivery services.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 4 2

Real estate agent (Orlando, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I barely use USPS, only for occasional document mailing.
  • The policy doesn't seem to touch on my needs greatly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 3: $12000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $16000000)

Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 10: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations