Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8766

Bill Overview

Title: REFINE Act

Description: This bill sets forth provisions to limit the sale and export of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increase energy production from energy producers in the United States, and make related requirements. Specifically, the bill requires the Department of Energy (DOE) to issue regulations prohibiting the export of petroleum products (e.g., crude oil) sold from the SPR to (1) any country that is subject to a U.S. arms embargo as specified by the bill, (2) any country that is a state sponsor of terrorism, and (3) any entity that is owned by China. Before DOE may sell, exchange, or loan crude oil from the SPR, DOE must first develop a plan to increase the percentage of federal land (including submerged land of the Outer Continental Shelf) leased for oil and gas production by the same percentage as the percentage of petroleum in the SPR that is to be drawn down. In addition, the President must rescind the Executive Order titled Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis . The President must also direct federal agencies to (1) identify and repeal any of their regulations that have the intent or effect of substantially reducing the energy independence of the United States, and (2) issue regulations and guidance to reduce the regulatory burden for energy producers in the United States and to increase the energy output by those producers.

Sponsors: Rep. Chabot, Steve [R-OH-1]

Target Audience

Population: People globally reliant on energy markets and impacted by energy policy changes

Estimated Size: 331000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Energy Sector Worker (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could secure my job by increasing domestic energy production.
  • I'm worried about what this means for environmental regulations, but my livelihood depends on this sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 7 4

Environmental Activist (New York, NY)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a step backward for environmental protection.
  • I'm worried about increased drilling on federal lands and its impact on ecosystems.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

Rancher (Rural Wyoming)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Oil extraction has brought both opportunity and environmental challenges to our community.
  • We need to balance economic benefits with environmental health.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 4 5

Software Developer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry energy prices could become volatile affecting data center costs and the tech industry’s margins.
  • Greater energy independence is important, but we need stability in energy markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

College Student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 23 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy ignores scientific consensus on climate change.
  • It's disheartening to see increased focus on fossil fuels when renewable energy is the future.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 3 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 6

Small Oil Rig Operator (Midland, TX)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy would ease some regulatory challenges, theoretically boosting operations.
  • Access to more federal lands for drilling could sustain my business longer.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 4

Economist (Boston, MA)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could exacerbate market volatility in the short term with possible long-term economic impacts.
  • Increased domestic energy production needs to match consumption demand to stabilize prices.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 8

Logistics Manager (Miami, FL)

Age: 36 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any policy that influences petroleum export could affect our logistics and distribution networks.
  • Stable energy prices are critical for our operations and client satisfaction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Renewable Energy Consultant (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a setback for the renewable energy movement, more should be done to support cleaner energy.
  • While it's about energy independence, the focus should shift to renewables to future-proof the energy sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 7
Year 20 4 7

Environmental Scientist (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Expanding energy production from federally leased lands is concerning for ecological impacts.
  • We need careful regulation to balance energy needs and environmental protection.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $85000000 (Low: $65000000, High: $95000000)

Year 2: $90000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $100000000)

Year 3: $95000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $105000000)

Year 5: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $110000000)

Year 10: $120000000 (Low: $95000000, High: $135000000)

Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Key Considerations