Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8754

Bill Overview

Title: Dismantling Investments in Violation of Ethical Standards through Trusts Act

Description: This bill prohibits a senior federal employee, his or her spouse, or dependent children from holding, purchasing, or selling certain financial instruments during the employee's term of service. Any profit made in violation of the prohibition must be disgorged to the Treasury and may subject the individual to a civil fine. The bill also requires the submission of an annual certification of compliance and requires the Government Accountability Office to conduct a compliance audit. A loss from a transaction or holding involving a covered financial instrument that is conducted in violation of this bill may not be deducted from the amount of income tax owed by the applicable senior federal employee, spouse, or dependent child. A senior federal employee who holds or conducts a transaction involving a covered financial instrument in violation of this bill may be subject to a civil fine assessed by the supervising ethics office.

Sponsors: Rep. Cloud, Michael [R-TX-27]

Target Audience

Population: Senior federal employees, their spouses, and dependent children

Estimated Size: 100000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Senior Federal Employee (Washington D.C.)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this policy is necessary to maintain public trust in federal institutions.
  • Adjusting my investment portfolio is inconvenient but manageable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Spouse of Senior Federal Employee (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The changes in managing investments are stressful but I understand the importance of the policy.
  • I worry about the potential penalties affecting our savings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

College Student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 20 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think the policy affects me directly, but I'm aware it might change my parents' financial planning.
  • I trust my parents will handle the adjustments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired Senior Federal Employee (Chicago, IL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Being retired, the policy doesn't affect me directly but I'm interested to see its long-term impact on government accountability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Government Accountability Office Auditor (Austin, TX)

Age: 38 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The new policy increases workload significantly but aligns with ethics improvements.
  • The need for thorough audits ensures that federal employees comply, boosting public confidence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Senior Federal Employee (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see it as a reasonable sacrifice for transparency and ethical governance.
  • Financial planning becomes slightly more complicated, but manageable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Independent Investment Consultant (Miami, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I need to stay informed on policy impacts to guide clients effectively.
  • This policy reduces my client base from federal employees, affecting business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

Senior Federal Employee (Denver, CO)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our family's financial planning will need revisiting due to these restrictions.
  • I agree with the principles of this policy, although it's personally inconvenient.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Senior Federal Employee (Boston, MA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've diversified enough that the policy doesn't impact my personal finances significantly.
  • I think the policy is a step in the right direction to avoid conflicts of interest.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Dependent Child of Senior Federal Employee (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see the importance of this policy for government transparency.
  • Personally, it's eye-opening but doesn't affect my daily life.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Year 2: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Year 3: $140000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $170000000)

Year 5: $130000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $160000000)

Year 10: $120000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $150000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Key Considerations