Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8740

Bill Overview

Title: Firearm Industry Crime and Trafficking Accountability Act

Description: This bill outlines certain requirements (and establishes related penalties for failure to comply with these requirements) for manufacturers or importers of firearms. For example, the bill generally requires each manufacturer or importer to create a monitoring database to retain essential facts about the criminal diversion or potential misuse of their firearms.

Sponsors: Rep. Maloney, Carolyn B. [D-NY-12]

Target Audience

Population: People working in the firearm manufacturing and import industry worldwide

Estimated Size: 200000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Compliance Officer at a firearms manufacturing company (Texas)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I understand the need for accountability, but the policy might overburden our compliance department.
  • The long-term benefits of reduced crime might help the industry improve its public image.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Firearms Import Specialist (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could drive up costs, but may also improve long-term industry viability.
  • I'm skeptical about the monitoring systems' effectiveness.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Graduate Student studying Public Policy (New York)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Potential for reducing gun crime excites me.
  • Worried about enforceability without international cooperation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Community Safety Advocate (Illinois)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If successful, the policy could lower gun violence, improving community wellbeing.
  • Skeptical about immediate effects, since much changes slowly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Firearms Production Manager (Ohio)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think it's unnecessary regulation that will increase costs significantly.
  • Doubtful that it will have any real impact on crime.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 8

Legal Consultant for Firearms Companies (Georgia)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could increase the workload but might create more jobs in compliance.
  • It's a positive step forward but needs international backing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Gun Store Owner (Nevada)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This adds more red tape and could deter lawful sales.
  • Hopes for reduced crime seem disconnected from reality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Import-Export Business Owner specializing in Firearms (Florida)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I foresee increased costs but can manage it.
  • Benefits the market, but challenges smaller competitors.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Firearms Manufacturer Worker (Virginia)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It might bring more jobs in monitoring and tracking, though I don’t see immediate changes for factory work.
  • Concerned about cost transfers if sales decline.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Retired firearms company executive (Washington)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy adds valuable oversight.
  • I'm cautious about how it might burden upcoming businesses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $250000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $300000000)

Year 2: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 3: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 5: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Year 10: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Year 100: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Key Considerations