Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8737

Bill Overview

Title: End Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Advertising Act

Description: This bill denies a tax deduction for the marketing, travel, promotion, and other related expenses incurred by any person involved in the manufacturing, production, extraction, refining, transportation, distribution, or marketing of any fossil fuel.

Sponsors: Rep. Porter, Katie [D-CA-45]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals connected to the fossil fuel industry

Estimated Size: 100000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Petroleum Engineer (Houston, TX)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don’t think this policy will impact my job directly, but if our marketing team is affected, it could reflect on the company's overall performance.
  • We need to adapt to new regulations regularly; this is just another change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Marketing Consultant (New York, NY)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could reduce the demand for my services if fossil fuel companies cut expenses on marketing.
  • I may need to look for clients in other industries to keep my business stable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Freelance Graphic Designer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If marketing agencies cut back due to this policy, freelance work might dry up temporarily.
  • I'll try to diversify my client base regardless.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

High School Teacher (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy provides a real-world example of government action on climate change.
  • It might stimulate interest and discussion among my students.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Energy companies might invest more in digital solutions to offset advertising losses.
  • Positive impact on tech innovation within the energy sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Coal Miner (Huntington, WV)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I’m unsure how directly this affects me, but anything reducing profits could dampen job security within the industry.
  • There's talk of new sustainability investments instead.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Environmental Activist (Denver, CO)

Age: 27 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Losing tax deductions might make fossil fuels less appealing; a win for environmental causes.
  • This policy won't completely change industry dynamics, but it's a positive stride.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Oil Rig Worker (Seattle, WA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My job doesn’t seem related to advertising, but external cuts could influence company health.
  • I hope this leads to more investment in safer and cleaner technologies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Advertising Executive (Austin, TX)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Potential decrease in ad spending by fossil fuel companies could affect my department's revenue.
  • May need to seek opportunities with new clients outside the industry.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Small Business Owner (Des Moines, IA)

Age: 53 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If advertising costs rise, I'm worried this might lead to higher fuel prices, impacting my business.
  • Will watch closely to see how the industry adapts to the policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Key Considerations