Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8731

Bill Overview

Title: Protect Children’s Innocence Act

Description: This bill places restrictions on the provision of gender affirming care. Gender affirming care includes performing surgery, administering medication, or performing other procedures for the purpose of changing the body of an individual to correspond to a sex that differs from the individual's biological sex. Specifically, the bill makes it a felony to perform any gender affirming care on a minor and it permits a minor on whom such care is performed to bring a civil action against each individual who provided the care. Additionally, the bill prohibits the use of federal funds for gender affirming care or for health insurance that covers such care. Such care may not be provided in a federal health care facility or by a federal employee. The bill also prohibits qualified health plans from including coverage for gender affirming care. Further, plans that include coverage for such care are not eligible for federal subsidies. Finally, the bill prohibits institutions of higher education from offering instruction in gender affirming care. It also makes any non-U.S. national ( alien under federal law) who performs gender affirming care on a minor deportable and inadmissible to the United States. The restrictions under this bill do not apply to the provision of care under certain circumstances such as when an individual does not have normal sex chromosome structure, sex steroid hormone production, or sex steroid hormone action.

Sponsors: Rep. Greene, Marjorie Taylor [R-GA-14]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals worldwide in need of or providing gender affirming care

Estimated Size: 200000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

High school student (Portland, Oregon)

Age: 16 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I was just beginning to feel comfortable with myself and now I feel like everything could fall apart.
  • It's already hard being at school, and this makes it so much scarier.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 4 7
Year 3 4 8
Year 5 4 8
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 6 8

Endocrinologist (Austin, Texas)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy forces me to restrict services that I believe are essential for some of my patients.
  • I've dedicated my career to helping people; this really limits how I can do that.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Graduate student (New York City, New York)

Age: 27 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about the future of mental health care for transgender youth who are already marginalized.
  • Policies like this rollback progress and can increase the stigma against trans identities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 7 9

University student (Birmingham, Alabama)

Age: 21 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It feels like my future is being decided by people who've never met me.
  • I'm scared for what this means not just for me, but for younger trans kids too.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 4 7
Year 3 4 7
Year 5 4 7
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 6 8

Insurance policy analyst (Salt Lake City, Utah)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These restrictions are bound to complicate how we build insurance plans and could lead to higher costs in other areas.
  • Ultimately, beneficiaries will feel the burden.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Pediatrician (Jackson, Mississippi)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It deeply concerns me that politics are interfering with medical judgment and care that should be based on individual needs.
  • This could drive professionals away from practicing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 7 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

High school student (Miami, Florida)

Age: 18 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm just turning 18 and aware of how fragile my medical plans are because of this policy.
  • This is crushing and makes me feel very uncertain about my next steps.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 4 7
Year 5 4 7
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 6 8

Lawyer (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill encourages legal challenges and can tie up resources that should be used to advance equal rights, not diminish them.
  • There's potential for increased discrimination.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

University professor (San Francisco, California)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The restriction on education around trans issues affects the future of informed and empathetic care among practitioners.
  • These are steps backward, not forward, creating potential for harm.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 10

Family nurse practitioner (Little Rock, Arkansas)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the mental health implications for young people denied care that's vital to their identity.
  • This policy stops progress dead in its tracks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 3: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 5: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 10: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Key Considerations