Bill Overview
Title: To prohibit the transfer of arms and the sharing of intelligence with the Government of Ukraine in the absence of certain certifications, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill prohibits the federal government from sharing intelligence with or providing security assistance to Ukraine in the absence of a certification that Ukraine is not accepting or attempting to secure bilateral assistance from China.
Sponsors: Rep. Stewart, Chris [R-UT-2]
Target Audience
Population: People in Ukraine
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill primarily affects geopolitical relations, particularly between the United States, Ukraine, and potentially China.
- The population of Ukraine could be indirectly impacted due to potential decreases in military aid and intelligence from the US, potentially affecting their defense capabilities.
- People working in defense and intelligence sectors in the US could be impacted by changes in policy concerning arms trading and intelligence sharing.
- The population of China is indirectly involved as the bill mentions Chinese assistance sought by Ukraine.
Reasoning
- The primary population directly impacted in the US would be those working in sectors related to defense and international relations, particularly those involved with Ukraine or China.
- The indirect impact on the general public would be minimal, as the bill targets a specific aspect of foreign policy and international assistance.
- A considerable number of the population may have opinions on this policy due to its geopolitical implications, but their day-to-day well-being is unlikely to change significantly.
- The individuals simulated in this response represent a mix of direct and indirect impacts, providing a variety of perspectives.
- Those who might experience more significant impact are defense contractors, policymakers involved in crafting foreign aid, and individuals with personal or familial ties to Ukraine.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned this policy might limit our leverage over Ukraine, potentially making them turn towards other allies, such as China, for assistance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Foreign Policy Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a journalist, any changes to international relations are significant. While this policy doesn't directly affect personal well-being, it does affect my work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might impact my job as my company serves clients in the defense sector. However, the impact is more on job security than personal well-being.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired Diplomat (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a strategic misstep, but it doesn't affect my personal well-being since I am retired.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Energy Sector Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The geopolitical implications could affect energy markets, but impact on personal well-being is limited unless market volatility increases.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
University Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is an interesting case study, but it doesn't have a direct impact on my life outside work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Defense Contractor (Miami, FL)
Age: 37 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If US-Ukraine contracts decrease, my business could be affected, though it's not clear by how much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Military Officer (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could affect our operational strategies in Europe, potentially requiring shifts in focus and resources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Political Activist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This kind of policy encourages division rather than cooperation, which is contrary to my advocacy for peace.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Non-Profit Worker (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The Ukrainian community I work with might feel indirectly impacted, but this won't change my day-to-day operations unless tensions escalate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $18000000 (Low: $13000000, High: $28000000)
Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)
Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $20000000)
Year 10: $7000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $15000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $10000000)
Key Considerations
- The geopolitical ramifications of limiting military and intelligence support to Ukraine and its ramifications on international relations.
- The balance between saving costs versus the potential destabilization in Eastern Europe.
- Economic impacts on U.S. defense contractors and their workforce.
- Monitoring and enforcing compliance with certification conditions will require additional resources.