Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8689

Bill Overview

Title: Commercial Space Transportation Safety Act of 2022

Description: This bill requires the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) to investigate and establish the facts, circumstances, and cause or probable cause of a commercial space transportation accident in which there is (1) a fatality or significant injury of any individual, regardless of whether the individual was on board the commercial launch vehicle at the time of the accident; or (2) substantial damage to property that is not associated with commercial space launch activities and that is not located at the launch site. The NTSB shall seek to enter into a memorandum of understanding with any other government agency with the authority to certify a commercial space transportation operation or investigate a commercial space transportation accident. The memoranda must delineate the conditions under and manner in which (1) a commercial space transportation accident that may be investigated by the NTSB will be investigated by the other agency, and (2) the NTSB will participate in the other agency's investigation.

Sponsors: Rep. Graves, Garret [R-LA-6]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or affected by commercial space transportation

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Aerospace Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this is a crucial step for the industry as it will improve our safety protocols.
  • Having the NTSB involved brings a level of seriousness and expertise.
  • This might increase our operational costs slightly, which could impact financials and job stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Insurance Analyst (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might increase premiums, but it also might reduce payouts long-term by addressing risks early.
  • Accurate investigations are essential to set fair insurance rates.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Regulatory Affairs Specialist (Seattle, WA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Improved investigations will streamline many regulatory aspects in the long term.
  • It's necessary for public trust and investment in space as an accessible domain.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Spacecraft Technician (Cape Canaveral, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This brings more safety to our operations, which is always needed.
  • Worried about how investigations might delay launch schedules affecting work hours.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

NTSB Investigator (Washington D.C.)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is within our existing expertise but expands our responsibilities significantly.
  • It will solidify the importance of rigorous investigations in new domains.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Graduate Student (Austin, TX)

Age: 26 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy sets a standard for safely advancing the space industry, which is important for sustainable growth.
  • Resource allocation to safety can indirectly impact R&D budgets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired (Rural Alabama)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • New policies don't directly affect me but knowing nearby launches are safer is reassuring.
  • Increased interest in space tourism might boost local tourism eventually.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A more structured investigation protocol is good for long-term investment trust in sector.
  • Short-term costs might be higher, but safety assurance boosts consumer confidence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 9 6

Environmental Scientist (New York, NY)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy may lead to better environmental assessments post-incident, critical for preventing harmful practices.
  • Space projects should not only focus on safety but sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Commercial Pilot (Denver, CO)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Inclusivity in investigation processes can raise overall safety levels in aviation expansions into space.
  • There will be greater scrutiny on safety records.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)

Year 2: $27000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $32000000)

Year 3: $29000000 (Low: $24000000, High: $34000000)

Year 5: $32000000 (Low: $26000000, High: $38000000)

Year 10: $36000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $42000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Key Considerations