Bill Overview
Title: Commercial Space Transportation Safety Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) to investigate and establish the facts, circumstances, and cause or probable cause of a commercial space transportation accident in which there is (1) a fatality or significant injury of any individual, regardless of whether the individual was on board the commercial launch vehicle at the time of the accident; or (2) substantial damage to property that is not associated with commercial space launch activities and that is not located at the launch site. The NTSB shall seek to enter into a memorandum of understanding with any other government agency with the authority to certify a commercial space transportation operation or investigate a commercial space transportation accident. The memoranda must delineate the conditions under and manner in which (1) a commercial space transportation accident that may be investigated by the NTSB will be investigated by the other agency, and (2) the NTSB will participate in the other agency's investigation.
Sponsors: Rep. Graves, Garret [R-LA-6]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in or affected by commercial space transportation
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The bill pertains to the investigation of commercial space transportation accidents.
- Industries involved in commercial space activities, including companies designing and operating commercial spacecraft, will be directly impacted.
- The bill could affect anyone involved in or related to commercial space transportation activities, including employees, contractors, and supply chain workers.
- It impacts passengers and crew of commercial space flights who may be reassured by improved investigation protocols.
- Individuals on the ground who might be affected by spaceflight accidents involving property damage will also be considered in investigations.
- Regulatory agencies managing space transport must coordinate better to manage and investigate accidents.
- This will affect insurance markets related to space transport, possibly influencing policies and premiums.
- Countries with significant commercial space activity, like the US, China, and European nations, will see interest as they may have domestic companies launching commercially.
Reasoning
- The Commercial Space Transportation Safety Act mainly targets the safety protocols and investigatory practices surrounding commercial space travel — a niche but rapidly growing aspect of both national and international transport.
- Key stakeholders include commercial space companies and their employees, as well as the regulatory bodies that ensure safety standards.
- Given the nature of the industry and its economic scale, the direct impact may predominantly affect those directly engaged within the commercial space sector, while indirect impacts could reach insurance, regulatory, and possibly local communities around launch sites.
- The estimated 20 million people globally involved or impacted does seem high, but given the potential downstream effects (supply chains, insurance), it captures broader influences.
- The $25,000,000 budget for the first year suggests funding for robust initial investigations and coordination efforts among agencies, which is reasonable given the policy’s scope.
Simulated Interviews
Aerospace Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this is a crucial step for the industry as it will improve our safety protocols.
- Having the NTSB involved brings a level of seriousness and expertise.
- This might increase our operational costs slightly, which could impact financials and job stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Insurance Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might increase premiums, but it also might reduce payouts long-term by addressing risks early.
- Accurate investigations are essential to set fair insurance rates.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Regulatory Affairs Specialist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improved investigations will streamline many regulatory aspects in the long term.
- It's necessary for public trust and investment in space as an accessible domain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Spacecraft Technician (Cape Canaveral, FL)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This brings more safety to our operations, which is always needed.
- Worried about how investigations might delay launch schedules affecting work hours.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
NTSB Investigator (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is within our existing expertise but expands our responsibilities significantly.
- It will solidify the importance of rigorous investigations in new domains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Austin, TX)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy sets a standard for safely advancing the space industry, which is important for sustainable growth.
- Resource allocation to safety can indirectly impact R&D budgets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired (Rural Alabama)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- New policies don't directly affect me but knowing nearby launches are safer is reassuring.
- Increased interest in space tourism might boost local tourism eventually.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A more structured investigation protocol is good for long-term investment trust in sector.
- Short-term costs might be higher, but safety assurance boosts consumer confidence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Environmental Scientist (New York, NY)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy may lead to better environmental assessments post-incident, critical for preventing harmful practices.
- Space projects should not only focus on safety but sustainability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Commercial Pilot (Denver, CO)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Inclusivity in investigation processes can raise overall safety levels in aviation expansions into space.
- There will be greater scrutiny on safety records.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $27000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $32000000)
Year 3: $29000000 (Low: $24000000, High: $34000000)
Year 5: $32000000 (Low: $26000000, High: $38000000)
Year 10: $36000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $42000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Key Considerations
- The burgeoning nature of the commercial space industry will require forward-thinking regulatory frameworks.
- Inter-agency collaborations and clarity on jurisdictional responsibilities are critical to avoid duplicated efforts and resource wastage.
- Managing technological advancements will be crucial in ensuring investigation protocols do not lag behind industry developments.
- Effective communication and transparent reporting with the public and stakeholders will increase trust in investigations and outcomes.