Bill Overview
Title: Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act of 2022
Description: 2022 This bill requires congressional approval for a presidential import adjustment due to a national security threat from an import related to military equipment, energy resources, or critical infrastructure essential to national security. Specifically, the bill requires the President to submit a proposal to Congress, which Congress may approve by a joint resolution. Under current law, the President determines whether any adjustment of an import is necessary and must submit to Congress the reasons for any action taken or not taken. The Department of Defense (currently, the Department of Commerce) must investigate the effect of these imports on national security. The bill retroactively applies to any proposed action made four years before enactment of this bill. In general, any rate of duty modification occurring in the time period beginning six years before and ending the day before enactment of this bill must revert to the previous rate unless it receives congressional approval.
Sponsors: Rep. Kind, Ron [D-WI-3]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in or affected by global trade of military equipment, energy resources, or critical infrastructure
Estimated Size: 332000000
- The bill impacts entities and individuals involved in importing goods related to military equipment, energy resources, or national security infrastructure.
- If the bill changes tariff rates or imposes import restrictions, it could affect domestic consumers and businesses relying on these imports.
- The legislation reduces the executive branch's power, affecting the balance between Congress and the President.
- By requiring Congressional approval, the bill implies more legislative oversight, affecting stakeholders who lobby for import regulations.
Reasoning
- The policy mainly impacts businesses and individuals involved in the importing of goods relevant to national security. This includes those in industries related to military equipment, energy resources, and critical infrastructure.
- People in occupations or businesses reliant on these imports may experience changes in costs and availability, potentially affecting employment and price levels for consumers.
- The policy affects executive-congressional power dynamics, but this is most relevant to policymakers and may indirectly impact the public through changes in trade policy.
- It is important to include individuals not directly impacted by the policy to provide a balanced view of its reach.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could delay necessary imports due to longer approval processes.
- It might stabilize the import fees if Congress manages to approve lower tariffs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Energy Industry Analyst (Houston, Texas)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Uncertainty could increase in the short-term as tariffs might be adjusted again.
- Long-term changes might make energy resources a bit more expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Automotive Manufacturer (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Importing components might become more expensive, affecting production costs.
- Increased costs might need to be passed on to consumers, lowering demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Tech Startup Employee (San Francisco, California)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tech industry could experience subtle changes if tariffs affect component pricing.
- Likely incumbent tech giants are more affected than startups.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired (New York, New York)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Watching legislative changes in trade gives hope for more oversight.
- Could slow growth of imports, balancing domestic production.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Policy Consultant (Portland, Oregon)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy oversight could ensure imported energy resources are environmentally sound.
- May lead to missed opportunities for faster adaptation to renewable imports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
International Trade Lawyer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased legislative control might lead to more complex cases.
- Greater demand for legal expertise around trade policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Supply Chain Manager (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Not directly linked to critical imports, but shifts in tariffs could affect entire sectors.
- Possible knock-on effects in logistics costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, Florida)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Uncertainty in import tariffs could affect resource planning.
- Congressional oversight might lead to more stability long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
University Professor (Albany, New York)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy allows real-world case studies for students on the legislative process.
- Could highlight Congress’s role in adapting trade policies in security contexts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)
Year 2: $90000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $110000000)
Year 3: $95000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $115000000)
Year 5: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)
Year 10: $105000000 (Low: $85000000, High: $125000000)
Year 100: $110000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $130000000)
Key Considerations
- The shift of investigative responsibility to the Department of Defense signals increased emphasis on national security over economic considerations in trade actions.
- Retroactive application could cause disruptions; careful management will be needed to prevent significant negative impacts.
- The balance of authority between the legislative and executive branches represents a significant political shift that might complicate or lengthen decision-making processes.