Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022
Description: This bill authorizes the President to lend or lease defense articles to Taiwan for protection against potential Chinese military aggression and requires the President to establish expedited procedures for delivering loaned or leased defense articles to Taiwan.
Sponsors: Rep. Steel, Michelle [R-CA-48]
Target Audience
Population: People residing in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill is focused on supporting Taiwan's military defense capabilities against potential threats from China.
- Taiwan's population will be directly impacted as the bill aims to enhance their national security and defense.
- Taiwan has a population of approximately 24 million people as of recent estimates.
- The bill's effects could also indirectly impact the population of China and the broader East Asian region due to potential geopolitical shifts.
- Global security dynamics, particularly involving countries with vested interests in Taiwan such as the United States, Japan, and potentially ASEAN countries, could be affected.
Reasoning
- The policy is designed to enhance Taiwan's military defense, implying potential benefits for U.S. defense industries involved in production and logistics, but at a financial cost. The $3 billion budget in year 1 and $16.5 billion over 10 years represents a substantial investment that could impact U.S. taxpayers, but the direct benefits might not be equally distributed among the U.S. population.
- Not all Americans will feel significant or direct effects from the policy. Those in defense industries or regions with a strong defense presence are more likely to experience greater impacts.
- The policy might indirectly influence U.S. citizens interested in geopolitics or those with familial or cultural ties to Taiwan, affecting their perception of safety and global stability.
- Considering the limited budget relative to the U.S. population size, substantive individual economic impacts may be low.
Simulated Interviews
Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy will create more job security for those of us in the defense sector, which is a positive.
- There might be some tension, but I think the U.S. needs to show strong support for Taiwan.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Policy Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy increases U.S. involvement in East Asia, which is critical for maintaining regional stability.
- I think it impacts our international standing positively but may strain U.S.-China relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
University Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While Taiwan's security is important, this policy might escalate tensions with China unnecessarily.
- American taxpayers may express concern about funding foreign military support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Retired (San Diego, CA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supporting Taiwan is essential for protecting my family abroad, though I worry about costs.
- I'm proud to see America taking a strong stance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 4 |
Graduate Student (Austin, TX)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy broadens U.S.-Taiwan collaborations and enhances democratic defenses.
- The financial burden seems justified given China's growing influence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't see how this policy impacts my daily life or business.
- Concerns about government spending could affect economic policies more broadly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Nurse (Miami, FL)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Honestly, I am not really concerned with foreign policies as much.
- I hope that such expenses don't affect healthcare funding.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Tech Specialist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Providing Taiwan with defense support may boost regional tech collaborations.
- I'm concerned about the indirect pressures it might place on tech sectors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
College Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill is crucial for my studies and future career, as it shows real-world policy applications.
- I'm concerned about the ethical implications of military expansion.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Journalist (Houston, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as an essential move for U.S. geopolitical strategy in Asia.
- However, we must be wary of overextending our military commitments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $3000000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $4000000000)
Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 3: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 10: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Geopolitical stability in East Asia is crucial for global trade routes and economic security; hence, defense needs are prioritized.
- Legislation relies heavily on U.S. defense industry capacity and logistics.
- Potential for international political implications and reactions, notably from China, which could affect U.S.-China relations.
- Long-term commitments necessitate careful anticipation of defense equipment lifecycle and logistical support.