Bill Overview
Title: Banning Oil Exports to Foreign Adversaries Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of Energy (DOE) to prohibit the export or sale of petroleum products (e.g., crude oil) from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to (1) China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran; (2) any other country the government of which is subject to sanctions imposed by the United States; and (3) any entity owned, controlled, or influenced by such countries or the Chinese Communist Party. However, DOE may issue a waiver of the prohibition if the export or sale of petroleum products is in the national security interests of the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Houlahan, Chrissy [D-PA-6]
Target Audience
Population: People residing in China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill targets exports of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to specific adversarial countries, which means the main international impact would be on these countries.
- The key countries listed include China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran, which collectively have large populations.
- China's economy is heavily reliant on oil imports, thus a restriction by a significant oil producer like the U.S. could alter its energy strategies.
- The American impact is relatively limited as it involves changes to export logistics rather than domestic oil availability.
- The legislation does not affect countries not considered adversaries or those not under U.S. sanctions, minimizing broader global impacts.
Reasoning
- The target population in the U.S. mainly includes individuals working in the oil sector, as these individuals may experience changes in job security or income due to the prohibition on exports to certain countries.
- Indirect impacts may also affect Americans as consumers of gasoline and other petroleum products, as global oil price fluctuations could influence domestic prices.
- Since the policy does not impact domestic production or consumption directly, Americans outside of the oil sector should see minimal direct impact; however, they may experience economic influences via the market.
- A diverse distribution of interviews includes individuals with varied degrees of exposure to the oil industry, offering insights into differing levels of impact.
- Given the policy's budget constraints, the government's ability to implement additional supportive measures is limited, focusing on enforcing the prohibition rather than providing subsidies or compensations.
Simulated Interviews
oil rig operator (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might put my job at risk because we export a lot of oil to Asia.
- If prices drop or export demand falls, I might have to look for new work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
petroleum engineer (Bismarck, ND)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I expect some effects on export revenue, but hopefully, our domestic contracts will help us stay steady.
- We may see more investment shifts domestically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 26 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could introduce more volatility into oil markets, impacting trading strategies.
- Might lead to temporary upticks in oil prices as markets adjust.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
small business owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned if global oil prices rise, our costs might increase.
- Hopefully, domestic supply won't be too affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
safety officer in an oil refinery (Baton Rouge, LA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our focus will remain on safety, but any export drops could affect new projects and expansions.
- It's an adjustment for us, but not unmanageable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
environmental consultant (Denver, CO)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might not directly impact my work as I'm more focused on compliance.
- Change in export policy shouldn't alter the environmental compliance landscape too much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
retired (Tulsa, OK)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a necessary geopolitical move.
- It could hurt some market values initially, but long-term stability is key.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
independent investor (Miami, FL)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might cause some interesting shifts in Asian energy stocks.
- Keeping an eye on market responses is critical for investment strategy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
owner of a logistics company (Chicago, IL)
Age: 33 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Domestic transport should remain steady, but there might be fewer export-related contracts.
- Need to diversify client base to mitigate risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
graduate student (San Diego, CA)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's an interesting policy balancing national interests and international dynamics.
- Good case study for classwork and understanding U.S. foreign policy impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Year 2: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Year 3: $9000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $14000000)
Year 5: $8000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $12000000)
Year 10: $7000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $11000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $9000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill's impact on global oil prices due to rapid shifts in supply chains.
- Strategic considerations in terms of national security and how waivers are implemented.
- Potential reactions and adjustments by targeted foreign countries, which could pursue alternative energy strategies or suppliers.
- Monitoring and enforcement costs related to the DOE's expanded role in regulating and tracking exports.