Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8606

Bill Overview

Title: To amend title 49, United States Code, to prohibit the extension of certain contracts to procure rail rolling stock, and for other purposes.

Description: This bill prohibits the execution and extension of certain contracts between public transportation agencies and rail rolling stock manufacturers to procure rail rolling stock.

Sponsors: Rep. Crawford, Eric A. "Rick" [R-AR-1]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals affected by changes in rail rolling stock procurement

Estimated Size: 50000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Public Transportation Manager (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could complicate efforts to modernize our fleet as it limits our supplier options.
  • With fewer bidders, costs might increase, and project timelines could extend.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Rail Manufacturing Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy directly impacts our US operations; we risk losing contracts and needing to downsize.
  • We need strong local partnerships to adjust.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 8
Year 2 4 7
Year 3 4 7
Year 5 3 6
Year 10 3 6
Year 20 3 6

Public Rail Passenger (New York, NY)

Age: 63 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am worried about fare increases or service disruptions if the policy raises costs.
  • So far, no immediate changes, but long-term effects are concerning.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Rail Infrastructure Consultant (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could lead to more local sourcing initiatives, which might be positive if managed well.
  • The transition phase could be rocky for contracts and project timelines.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Local Government Official (Boston, MA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We're worried about budget constraints increasing due to this policy.
  • We might need to lobby for higher funding to offset costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Rail Manufacturer Employee (Seattle, WA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We see uncertainty ahead in securing contracts which sustain our business.
  • Our growth ambitions in the US market might be hindered.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 4 7
Year 5 3 6
Year 10 3 6
Year 20 3 6

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy challenges current procurement norms, providing an interesting case study.
  • Monitoring its effects will be crucial for future infrastructure plans.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Commuter Advocate (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Little immediate impact on commuters, but any decrease in service reliability from contract issues is a concern.
  • We prioritize keeping fares stable and ensuring service quality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Public Transportation Rider (Denver, CO)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy doesn't affect my travel options much right now.
  • I'm more concerned about potential long-term impacts on service quality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Urban Economist (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 58 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy provides a natural experiment in how market restrictions affect local economies.
  • Expecting some mixed economic signals from increased local production efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Key Considerations