Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8566

Bill Overview

Title: To impose a fee on certain remittance transfers to fund border security.

Description: This bill imposes a 5% transfer fee on remittances sent to recipients outside of the United States, to be paid by the sender. The bill also establishes for U.S. citizens a tax credit equal to the amount that the citizen taxpayer paid in such transfer fees for any taxable year. The bill also provides funding for various border-related activities, such as to build a barrier along the U.S.-Mexico barrier. The funding shall be equal to the amount collected by the transfer fee minus the tax credits allowed.

Sponsors: Rep. Hern, Kevin [R-OK-1]

Target Audience

Population: People living in countries outside the United States who receive remittances.

Estimated Size: 24000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Construction Worker (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy will cost more money to send the same amount. I worry about sending less to my family who depends on this money.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 6 8

Nurse (Miami, FL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax credit is helpful, but it's still inconvenient to pay extra upfront. People living in my home country rely on my support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Software Engineer (Houston, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a U.S. citizen, tax credits cover the fee for me, but the paperwork is annoying.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Taxi Driver (New York, NY)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The additional fee will hurt. It’s hard already to make ends meet, and I need to support my family back home.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 6 7

Freelancer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 26 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I rarely send money, so the fee doesn’t impact me much. Still, I feel bad for those who need to send regularly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired Teacher (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax credit covers it for me, but it's still a bit of a hassle.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Restaurant Manager (Seattle, WA)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The transfer fee will increase my costs significantly when I send money for business investments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 9

Accountant (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 33 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is inconvenient but the tax credit helps. My parents need this support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 10

IT Specialist (Dallas, TX)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don’t send much regularly, so the policy doesn’t affect my budget too much.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The fee will limit how much I can send home. I need to balance supporting my family and my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $900000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1100000000)

Year 2: $927000000 (Low: $721000000, High: $1133000000)

Year 3: $954810000 (Low: $742630000, High: $1166990000)

Year 5: $1010394035 (Low: $785915987, High: $1234872071)

Year 10: $1130616816 (Low: $879121892, High: $1382111739)

Year 100: $5205061930 (Low: $4049845003, High: $6360278856)

Key Considerations