Bill Overview
Title: Stop the Cartels Act
Description: This bill addresses various issues including matters relating to immigration, law enforcement cooperation with Mexico, and drug cartels. The bill bars federal financial assistance for state or local jurisdictions that (1) restrict compliance with immigration detainers issued by the Department of Homeland Security, or (2) have any law or policy that violates immigration laws. Furthermore, under this bill, the detention of alien minors must be governed by specified sections of the Immigration and Nationality Act and not any judicial decree or settlement. (A 1997 settlement agreement imposes requirements related to the treatment of such minors, including limits on how long they may be detained under certain conditions.) The bill also makes various changes to asylum applications, including by (1) increasing the burden that an asylum applicant must meet to establish a credible fear of persecution, and (2) establishing refugee application and processing centers in Central America. In addition, certain Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development assistance may not be made available to Mexico's government until the State Department certifies that Mexico has removed certain barriers to law enforcement cooperation and intelligence sharing between the United States and Mexico. The bill also establishes the foreign Special Transnational Criminal Organization designation and establishes penalties related to designated organizations, such as making it a crime to knowingly provide material support to such an organization. The State Department must designate specified organizations, including the Sinaloa Cartel, with the designation, and may designate other organizations that fit criteria established in this bill.
Sponsors: Rep. Davidson, Warren [R-OH-8]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals affected by immigration, asylum, and cartel-related legislation
Estimated Size: 13500000
- The bill targets immigration issues, which primarily impacts undocumented immigrants in the United States as it would remove financial incentives for sanctuary cities.
- It affects minors who are detained for immigration purposes by altering the legal framework governing their detention, specifically removing them from protections afforded by prior legal agreements.
- By changing asylum application requirements, the bill impacts asylum seekers who may find it more challenging to establish credible fear, thus potentially decreasing the number of successful applications.
- The bill impacts law enforcement and administrative operations in regions that are affected by cartel activities, particularly in terms of international cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico.
- The designation of transnational criminal organizations affects entities and individuals involved with or providing support to such organizations.
Reasoning
- The policy's impact is likely to be most significant on undocumented immigrants, particularly those residing in sanctuary cities, as it removes financial support for these jurisdictions. Immigrants affected by the change in asylum laws will also see direct effects on their ability to stay in the US.
- Juvenile immigrants face potential increased detention times due to the removal of certain protections, affecting their wellbeing scores negatively if the policy proceeds.
- The impact on US citizens might include those involved in law enforcement near border areas, as well as citizens involved in activities with entities newly designated as criminal organizations.
- The budget limitations mean that although policy impacts might be significant for those affected, the reach will be limited, likely focusing on areas with high concentrations of undocumented immigrants and cartel activity influence.
Simulated Interviews
Waitress (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I already feel insecure due to my immigration status, and the thought of losing protections from the city scares me.
- My kids could be forced to leave school if I get deported.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 2 | 4 |
Border Patrol Agent (San Antonio, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could strengthen our resources against cartels, which is a good thing.
- However, it also means increased responsibility and danger for agents like myself.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
NGO Worker (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This law makes it harder for those in genuine need to seek asylum.
- Around Phoenix, this will increase fear and distress among immigrant communities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Construction Worker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about my family still in Honduras and the processing centers may delay their chance to join me.
- The policy means fear of losing work if my status isn’t clear.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
School Principal (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our school will struggle with federal funding cuts, affecting children’s programs.
- Many of our kids could face instability at home due to this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about my workforce's stability and what happens if my employees face deportation.
- This could indirectly hurt my business if it reduces workforce availability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Software Engineer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 30 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this law is harmful and punitive towards immigrants, which is unfair.
- I believe our city needs to defy these restrictions to support our immigrant communities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Elementary School Teacher (El Paso, TX)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Some of my students could face deportations or see their family members detained longer.
- This policy disheartens me as these children deserve stable learning environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Lawyer (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The new asylum rules will make it harder for my clients to win their cases.
- This could mean a loss of business for many like me who focus on this legal area.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Real Estate Agent (Houston, TX)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I fear my community will feel even more cornered and unsafe.
- Businesses are worried about increased scrutiny and loss of workers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $80000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $85000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $105000000)
Year 3: $90000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $110000000)
Year 5: $95000000 (Low: $85000000, High: $115000000)
Year 10: $100000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $120000000)
Year 100: $120000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $150000000)
Key Considerations
- The legal challenges that might arise from affected states and jurisdictions can significantly impact costs.
- Cooperation from the Mexican government is uncertain and could extend timelines or inflate costs.
- Detention facilities might face human rights challenges due to changes in minors' detention rules.
- Impact on sanctuary cities could lead to adjustments in local economies dependent on federal funding.