Bill Overview
Title: Will to Fight Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to submit a report to Congress examining the extent to which analyses of the military will to fight and the national will to fight informed broader analyses of the intelligence community. The bill specifies that the report consider analyses of how the armed forces and governments of Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq would perform at key junctures.
Sponsors: Rep. Crow, Jason [D-CO-6]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq
Estimated Size: 1000
- The bill focuses on intelligence gathering and analysis concerning military forces' will to fight and national will to fight in Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
- The global population that could be directly impacted would primarily be associated with these countries due to the specific focus on the armed forces and governments' behavior.
- Military and governmental performance at key junctures can have wide-reaching effects on geopolitical stability, national policies, security, and diplomatic relationships globally.
- The broader international community, including global policymakers, defense strategists, and international relations experts, would also find interest in the outcomes of such analyses, although the direct impact on their wellbeing is less significant compared to those in the affected regions.
Reasoning
- The policy is analytical, focusing on enhancing intelligence reports about military engagement and will to fight in specified regions.
- Its direct impact on the wellbeing of the American public is primarily concentrated among intelligence analysts, military strategists, certain policymakers, and individuals directly engaged in foreign policy development.
- The budget constraints and target population mean that the policy's direct reach in the U.S. is limited to perhaps 1000 people, mostly within government and intelligence communities.
- While the general public is indirectly influenced by potential policy shifts arising from such analyses, the immediate wellbeing effects are minimal outside of the target community.
Simulated Interviews
Intelligence Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill formalizes something we already do, but it gives us more structure to improve our analyses.
- The report might help our understanding and potentially improve U.S. strategic decisions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Defense Policy Advisor (Arlington, VA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a critical perspective required for nuanced military strategy which often lacks comprehensive 'will to fight' analysis.
- This will likely have important implications for future policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Graduate Student (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find this focus fascinating and relevant to my research.
- Though it doesn't affect my day-to-day life, it provides fruitful material for academic exploration.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Veteran Affairs Liaison (Chicago, IL)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I no longer serve, understanding our and others' military morale is always valuable.
- This policy feels distant from my work but I appreciate that it can inform better decisions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Political Science Professor (Seattle, WA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy complements my academic focus.
- I value policies that increase our understanding of international conflicts and military psychology.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Journalist (San Antonio, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could provide more depth to report on military engagements, however, change happens slowly.
- While interesting, it won't directly affect most readers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Defense Contractor (Boston, MA)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improvements in understanding military engagement can mean better strategic purchases and training modules.
- While indirectly related, understanding 'will to fight' can shape needs for our products.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Human Rights Activist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this leads to more informed and peaceful policies, though historically such reports can be a double-edged sword.
- Direct impacts on the fieldwork are unlikely without further peace-oriented changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Foreign Policy Consultant (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Greater understanding of military morale enhances policy recommendations for diplomatic resolutions.
- While impactful on my work, the direct personal impact is minimal.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired Military Officer (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Formalizing analyses of military will could provide useful insights but not change much for retired personnel.
- Would be more interesting if it led to personnel policies that addressed morale issues noted in such reports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1500000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The focus of this bill on intelligence and analysis results in a predominantly administrative cost profile.
- The ODNI's existing resources would likely absorb many of the operational needs, reducing incremental costs.
- Potential geopolitical implications based on findings could be significant but are unpredictable.