Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8554

Bill Overview

Title: SAVE Act

Description: This bill directs the Department of Energy (DOE) to prohibit the sale of petroleum products (e.g., crude oil) from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to certain entities. Specifically, DOE must prohibit the sale of petroleum products from the SPR to entities headquartered in Russia. Further, DOE must prohibit the sale of petroleum products from the SPR to entities headquartered in countries (Belarus, Burma, China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela) that are subject to certain prohibitions concerning exports of defense articles and services under the Department of State's International Traffic in Arms Regulations.

Sponsors: Rep. Bice, Stephanie I. [R-OK-5]

Target Audience

Population: People living in countries prohibited from purchasing petroleum from the SPR (Russia, Belarus, Burma, China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela)

Estimated Size: 333000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Oil and Gas Executive (Midland, Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy will limit our market but aligns with national interests.
  • Our company will have to diversify our client base.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Financial Analyst specializing in Energy Sector (New York City, New York)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy adds uncertainty in international trades; we must adjust our risk models.
  • However, it's an opportunity for US producers as potential price hikes might benefit them.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 8

Petroleum Engineer (Houston, Texas)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I doubt this policy will significantly impact our domestic operations.
  • It's more about geopolitical maneuvers than market disruptions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Environmental Policy Student (San Francisco, California)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's a step towards reducing dependency on unstable regions.
  • The environmental impact is negligible compared to potential geopolitical benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 7 6

Automobile Worker (Detroit, Michigan)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If oil prices rise, EV demand might increase which could be beneficial for our jobs.
  • I don't foresee drastic impacts on the petrol-driven car market immediately.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Economics Professor (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy reflects a broader strategy of energy independence and security.
  • Short-term impacts are minor, but limiting options could negatively affect trade flexibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 10

Small Business Owner (Baton Rouge, Louisiana)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Slight increase in fuel prices could deter some customers, but it's manageable.
  • Policy doesn't directly target local stations, so effects are indirect.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 8

Electrician (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the policy prompts higher oil prices, there might be a shift to renewable energy investments, which could benefit my line of work.
  • Long term, such shifts could be positive for the environment and renewables sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Government Policy Advisor (Washington D.C.)

Age: 47 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Strategically, it's to disengage economically from adversarial nations.
  • The long-term political gains might outweigh the short-term economic drawbacks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

College Student studying International Relations (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like the SAVE Act can push us towards a better standing by not supporting tenuous governments.
  • It's an academically interesting case of economics affecting geopolitics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Key Considerations