Bill Overview
Title: Deter PRC Support to the Russian War Effort Act
Description: The bill authorizes the President to impose sanctions on persons associated with China for financial, material, or technological support contributing materially to Russia's military action in Ukraine. The sanctions include, for example, blocking transactions in U.S. property and prohibiting U.S. entry visas.
Sponsors: Rep. Schiff, Adam B. [D-CA-28]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals associated with China supporting Russia's military action in Ukraine
Estimated Size: 5000
- The bill targets individuals associated with China who support Russia's military actions in Ukraine.
- The global target includes individuals from China and potentially other countries providing support to Russia.
- China's global business network is expansive, and any person with financial or material ties supporting Russia could be affected.
- Dense economic relations between China and Russia due to trade and technology transfer might also bring many persons under the bill's purview.
Reasoning
- The targeted population is relatively small, making up around 5,000 individuals within the U.S. This represents a very specific subset of Chinese nationals or individuals with connections that support Russia's military actions.
- Given the nature of the sanctions, impacted individuals might see reduced financial security and potential socio-political consequences, such as difficulty entering the U.S. or conducting business with U.S. entities.
- While the policy primarily targets a niche group, broader economic relations might cause concern among Chinese expatriates or U.S. businesses involved with China, albeit indirectly.
- Costs incurred by the policy are likely administrative, related to monitoring and enforcement, given the small size of the targeted population.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about how the sanctions might impact my ability to travel or work on projects that involve both American and Chinese companies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the bill is a strategic move politically, but personally, I hope it doesn't cause unnecessary tension for Asian Americans.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Senior Executive in Oil Industry (Houston, TX)
Age: 58 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could indirectly impact business negotiations or partnerships with firms that have ties to China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There might be a chilling effect on academic exchanges and research collaborations between schools in the U.S. and China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Operating Manager at a Manufacturing Firm (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm wary of how these sanctions might complicate my firm's operations if key suppliers are implicated.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Visiting Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this doesn't lead to a substantial decrease in scholarly collaboration between the U.S. and China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Foreign Policy Consultant (Chicago, IL)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could impact companies with deep financial networks in China, making my work more complex.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Biotech Researcher (Austin, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could deter potential collaborations or investment opportunities in my field, which often involve international partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about how sanctions might make it harder for my family to visit or do business without any personal involvement in politics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Entrepreneur (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There's a real fear that any increase in geopolitical tensions can lead to delays or increased costs in production due to potential sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Key Considerations
- The extent to which China opposes or complies with these sanctions will heavily influence economic impacts.
- International relationships and existing trade agreements might be affected by the enforcement of these measures.
- The precise identification of individuals to sanction will be crucial to minimize unintended consequences.