Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8537

Bill Overview

Title: Mass Shooter Prosecution Act of 2022

Description: This bill establishes certain crimes involving mass killings (killing three or more people in a single incident using a machinegun or covered semiautomatic weapon in a circumstance outlined by the bill) as terrorism under federal criminal terrorism statutes.

Sponsors: Rep. Moulton, Seth [D-MA-6]

Target Audience

Population: People involved or affected by mass shootings

Estimated Size: 300000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Prosecutor (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this classification as terrorism will give us more leverage in court.
  • The policy's impact on me is more about increasing workload and pressure to secure convictions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Police Officer (Denver, CO)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It makes it easier to handle situations knowing there are serious consequences.
  • The policy might deter potential shooters, easing some law enforcement burden.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

School Principal (Sacramento, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Classifying these acts as terrorism might push more resources towards prevention.
  • I'm not directly affected, but it could make schools feel safer.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Retired Teacher (Buffalo, NY)

Age: 62 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm glad to see these crimes taken as seriously as they should, but it doesn't change a lot for me.
  • Safety does always concern me for my grandchildren.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Non-Profit Worker (Austin, TX)

Age: 35 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If this means less mass shootings, I'm all for it.
  • The classification shift could help us secure more funding and attention.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

College Student (Orlando, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could lead to faster prosecutions and more closure for victims.
  • I just hope it helps prevent others from going through what I did.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Journalist (New York, NY)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The change might provide more compelling stories and insights into the justice process.
  • It will be interesting to see how these cases evolve in legal terms.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Gun Shop Owner (Dallas, TX)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm cautious about anything that tightens gun regulation.
  • Reclassification seems more about political posturing than real change to me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Graduate Student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 23 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm interested in seeing empirical evidence of the policy's impact.
  • It addresses some of the systemic issues related to mass shootings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 7 5

Tech Entrepreneur (Miami, FL)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy likely won't affect my business directly, but social stability matters for us all.
  • It might encourage more innovation in safety technology.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Key Considerations