Bill Overview
Title: Turn OFF THE TAP Act
Description: This bill prohibits federal contracts with or provision of federal funds to designated entities. Designated entities include those subject to specified U.S. sanctions, entities that have a relationship with China's military-industrial complex, and entities that produce communications equipment or services that pose unacceptable risks to U.S. national security.
Sponsors: Rep. Tenney, Claudia [R-NY-22]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals working for or related to entities affected by U.S. sanctions or designated under Turn OFF THE TAP Act
Estimated Size: 500000
- The bill targets designated entities that are subject to U.S. sanctions, associated with China's military-industrial complex, or provide risky communication equipment/services.
- Companies worldwide, particularly those dealing in communications technology, could be affected by being barred from U.S. federal contracts or funding.
- The sanctions may affect companies around the world, including their employees and stakeholders.
Reasoning
- The target population primarily consists of individuals working in American companies affected by federal sanction policies and those involved in China-related military-industrial activities.
- Since the policy could impact companies with federal contracts, focus was placed on occupations linked to technology, communications, and military sectors.
- The sample includes people from various states and personal situations to understand a comprehensive range of effects.
- Budget constraints imply that the scale of layoffs or contract losses must be limited; individuals far removed from affected sectors will likely see negligible impacts.
- Not all people interviewed will experience an immediate impact, and the policy might take a few years to fully manifest in certain areas.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about job security due to the potential loss of federal contracts.
- Apprehensive about possible restructuring or layoffs if the company loses a significant portion of its revenue.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Sales Manager (Texas)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worries about market volatility and potential job cuts if their product lines are restricted.
- Hopeful that diversifying clients can mitigate negative impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Senior Analyst (New York)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Believes the policy may limit investment opportunities and affect market predictions.
- Sees potential negative impact on portfolio returns from restricted companies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Marketing Specialist (Florida)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried that the policy might discourage investors or clients linked to affected sectors.
- Optimistic about pivoting focus to unaffected areas.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Network Administrator (Ohio)
Age: 38 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fearful of supply chain disruptions impacting company operations.
- Supportive of the policy for national security reasons but worried about short-term job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Policy Consultant (District of Columbia)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Anticipates increased demand for advisory services due to policy complexity.
- Expects some clients to face challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Communications Technician (Illinois)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about the future of his job owing to potential U.S. sanctions.
- Seeks opportunities to move to sectors less likely to be directly affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
HR Manager (Washington)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerns about workforce layoffs if contracts are terminated.
- Plans for potential staff training to adjust to a changing workplace landscape.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Defense Contractor (Virginia)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Believes the policy can ensure better security and compliant operations.
- However, worries about reshuffling contracts and learning curve for adjustments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
International Business Consultant (Georgia)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Expects increased consultations from companies about navigating new policies.
- Thrives on dynamic changes creating an opportunities market.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Key Considerations
- The complexity of compliance and enforcement of this policy across global companies.
- Potential for international trade tensions and retaliatory actions aimed at U.S. companies.
- The balance between ensuring national security and maintaining economic competitiveness.