Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8460

Bill Overview

Title: AIM Act

Description: This bill removes limitations on the authority of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to conduct activities related to the administration of federal firearms laws. Specifically, the bill removes provisions that limit the use of firearms tracing data; prohibit consolidating or centralizing records maintained by federal firearm licensees, or FFLs (e.g., gun dealers); prohibit imposing a requirement that gun dealers conduct a physical inventory; require national instant criminal background check records to be destroyed within 24 hours; limit the disclosure of data under the Freedom of Information Act; prohibit the ATF from altering the definition of a curio or relic firearm; prohibit the denial of a federal firearms license due to lack of business activity; prohibit transferring the ATF's functions, missions, or activities to other agencies or departments; prohibit the electronic retrieval of information gathered from firearm transaction records of FFLs that go out of business; and prohibit the ATF from denying an application to import certain shotguns. Additionally, the bill raises the liability standard for denying or revoking a federal firearms license from a willful violation to a knowing violation of federal firearms laws or regulations, and removes the de novo standard of judicial review for appealing the denial or revocation of a federal firearms license.

Sponsors: Rep. Beyer, Donald S., Jr. [D-VA-8]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals in the United States affected by firearms legislation

Estimated Size: 66000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Gun shop owner (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy makes paperwork tougher but could reduce illegal transfers, boosting legitimacy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 5

Legal advisor (California)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy changes increase workload, but provide clearer grounds for license revocation, which may improve overall compliance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Community college professor (Illinois)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could potentially reduce gun misuse, but successful implementation is complex.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 8 3

Law enforcement officer (Florida)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhanced ATF powers may lead to better control over illegal firearms, supporting public safety efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 4

Gun rights activist (New York)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a slippery slope to infringing on gun owners' rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 3 4
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 5

Small arms manufacturer (Colorado)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The implementation costs and increased scrutiny could pressure small operations like ours.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 3 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 2 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

Retired military (Ohio)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These changes may disrupt curio and relic markets, affecting cultural preservation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Data analyst (Washington)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Removing data limitations is a step forward for research, but must ensure privacy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

College student (Georgia)

Age: 21 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerned about how reforming ATF rules might affect lawful gun sports.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Federal lawmaker (Arizona)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More streamlined processes can lead to better enforcement, but careful balancing is essential.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Year 2: $165000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $200000000)

Year 3: $180000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $220000000)

Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $160000000, High: $240000000)

Year 10: $230000000 (Low: $180000000, High: $280000000)

Year 100: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $350000000)

Key Considerations