Bill Overview
Title: Upholding the Dayton Peace Agreement Through Sanctions Act
Description: This bill imposes visa- and property-blocking sanctions on foreign persons (i.e., individuals or entities) that are involved in certain actions that threaten the peace, stability, or democracy of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The President must impose such sanctions on certain foreign persons, including those that are responsible for or engaged in corruption or certain acts or policies that seek to (1) threaten the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina; (2) undermine democratic processes or institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; or (3) undermine the Dayton Peace Agreement or certain authorities related to the agreement. (The agreement brought an end to the Bosnian War, and Bosnia and Herzegovina's constitution stems in part from the agreement.) The Department of the Treasury may impose certain prohibitions and restrictions on a foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates a significant transaction for a foreign person subject to sanctions under this bill.
Sponsors: Rep. Wagner, Ann [R-MO-2]
Target Audience
Population: People living in or interacting significantly with Bosnia and Herzegovina
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The Dayton Peace Agreement brought peace to Bosnia and Herzegovina after the Bosnian War, affecting millions who live there. It also involves international oversight and regional stability.
- People directly involved in political processes, governance, and financial institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are likely to feel the impact.
- Foreign entities, including individuals and banks outside of Bosnia, that engage with sanctioned persons/entities may also be directly impacted.
- Given the geopolitical implications, countries with significant diplomatic or economic interests in Bosnia and Herzegovina, such as those in the EU and neighboring Balkan states, might also experience secondary effects.
Reasoning
- The policy is primarily focused on foreign individuals who are tied to activities that threaten the peace agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its direct impact on people within the U.S. is likely limited to certain groups, such as the Bosnian diaspora and businesses with ties to the region.
- The budgetary constraints suggest this is not a broad domestic policy in the U.S., which limits the direct impacts. The policy costs imply targeted action against specific individuals or entities rather than wide-reaching sanctions that could have more direct U.S. economic repercussions.
- The Bosnian diaspora, businesses investing and interacting with Bosnia, and policymakers concerned with Balkan stability are most likely to have concerns or benefits tied to the enactment of this policy, but the impact on their wellbeing might not be significant on a large scale.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (St. Louis, MO)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this policy as a safeguard for financial transactions and collaborations in the Balkan region.
- Though my work might involve more compliance checks, overall, it ensures that we're working with trustworthy entities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could bring more stability to the region, which might benefit my business in the long term.
- I'm concerned about potential short-term disruptions if any partners are sanctioned.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a critical step for maintaining democracy and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- It might enhance my opportunities for research funding and policy consultation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill could become a pivotal topic in my reports about Southeast Europe, drawing more attention to these issues.
- It may necessitate a change in focus or additional resources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Software Developer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Personally, I'm not directly affected by sanctions policies, but I worry about my partner's family in Bosnia.
- If it stabilizes the region, that's positive for us.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
NGO Worker (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 43 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could aid in the efforts to maintain peace and democratic standards in Bosnia.
- I envisage more collaborative work between NGOs and the government.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retired Diplomat (Miami, FL)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support any policy that aims to protect the Dayton Peace Agreement.
- It's fulfilling to see efforts to uphold agreements I once worked on.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Graduate Student (Denver, CO)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could provide an interesting case study for my research.
- It's reassuring to know there's active enforcement of international agreements.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
IT Consultant (Seattle, WA)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have no direct contact with Bosnia or its politics, and my line of work isn't impacted by such policies.
- However, geopolitical stability is always indirectly beneficial for global business environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Corporate Executive (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 58 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions are a tool that can sometimes hurt business ties, but are necessary for maintaining international order.
- This specific policy is unlikely to have a heavy impact on our European operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Key Considerations
- The effectiveness of the sanctions in achieving their stated diplomatic and security goals is uncertain and will depend on global cooperation.
- The costs related to monitoring and enforcing compliance with the sanctions may vary significantly depending on the geopolitical responses.
- The diplomatic environment may influence the successful identification and sanctioning of individuals/entities.