Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8419

Bill Overview

Title: To amend title 1, United States Code, to direct the Archivist of the United States to authenticate, count, and publish applications of States calling for a Convention for proposing amendments to the Constitution of the United States, to publish a certification when two-thirds of the States submit applications calling for such a Convention, and to notify Congress of the requirement under Article V of the Constitution to call such a Convention when such a certification is published, and for other purposes.

Description: This bill directs the National Archives and Records Administration to authenticate, count, and publish applications of states calling for a Convention for proposing amendments to the U.S. Constitution, to publish a certification when two-thirds of the states submit applications calling for such a convention, and to notify Congress of that requirement when such a certification is published.

Sponsors: Rep. Arrington, Jodey C. [R-TX-19]

Target Audience

Population: People worldwide interested in U.S. legislative and constitutional changes

Estimated Size: 332000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

State legislator (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy represents an important procedure for states to have a say in constitutional matters.
  • Given the partisan nature of politics, I am skeptical about the likelihood of meaningful change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Tech worker (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this affects my day-to-day life.
  • If it leads to better governance, I suppose that's a good thing, but I'm not convinced it will change much for me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Retired (Florida)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might once again bring constitutional changes to the forefront, which is necessary occasionally.
  • It's essential for states to have this power recognized and utilized correctly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Lawyer specializing in constitutional law (New York)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a critical part of ensuring our constitutional rights evolve with the times.
  • Care must be taken to avoid knee-jerk changes that could affect fundamental rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 10 9
Year 20 10 9

College student (Illinois)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is important for educational purposes and raising awareness about the constitutional amendment process.
  • I hope it results in amendments that are beneficial to more progressive causes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Small business owner (Ohio)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about how much time and money is spent on this when it could be used elsewhere.
  • Unless it impacts taxes or economic policy directly, it's hard to see immediate benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

High school teacher (Georgia)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is an excellent opportunity for educating young people about government processes.
  • I hope it translates into real change in the educational system.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Non-profit worker focused on social justice (Washington)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This has the potential to improve social justice if it leads to positive amendments.
  • However, I'm cautious about the possibility of regressive changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 4

Farmer (Arizona)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm more concerned with agriculture policies than constitutional changes.
  • As long as it doesn't affect my farming operations, I remain indifferent.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Stay-at-home parent (Virginia)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe constitutional changes could be necessary, but they need to prioritize family welfare and protection.
  • Until specific issues come up, this seems more abstract than practical for everyday concerns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $3500000)

Year 2: $2000000 (Low: $1500000, High: $2500000)

Year 3: $1500000 (Low: $1200000, High: $1800000)

Year 5: $1500000 (Low: $1200000, High: $1800000)

Year 10: $1500000 (Low: $1200000, High: $1800000)

Year 100: $1500000 (Low: $1200000, High: $1800000)

Key Considerations