Bill Overview
Title: Reduce Taxes on our Trucks Act
Description: This bill repeals the excise tax on heavy trucks and trailers sold at retail.
Sponsors: Rep. Mast, Brian J. [R-FL-18]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals impacted by the repeal of excise tax on heavy trucks and trailers
Estimated Size: 30000000
- The bill repeals the excise tax on heavy trucks and trailers sold at retail.
- Truck manufacturers may experience changes in demand due to reduced taxes on trucks and trailers.
- The trucking industry, including companies that purchase trucks and trailers, will likely be directly impacted through cost reductions.
- Businesses that rely on transportation and freight services will be indirectly impacted as transportation costs may decrease.
- Individuals directly employed in the trucking and manufacturing industries may also experience changes in job market conditions.
Reasoning
- The scope of the policy primarily affects those in the trucking and manufacturing industries, but has economic ripple effects on related sectors. Understanding various levels of impact from individuals directly involved in trucking to those in peripheral industries is necessary.
- Due to budget considerations, the policy will initially benefit a limited population subset; however, over time, secondary effects could expand the influence.
- When interpreting Cantril Wellbeing Scores, we expect those with a direct stake in trucking, such as truck drivers or small trucking company owners, to experience a significant boost in wellbeing scores due to reduced operational costs.
- Customers of these services may benefit indirectly in the form of reduced shipping costs, potentially passing on savings to the end consumer over time.
- Given the policy's scope, wellbeing improvements may peak in the short term as the direct financial savings are realized, then stabilize over the long term as markets adjust.
Simulated Interviews
Owner-Operator, Small Trucking Business (Dallas, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will significantly lower my operational costs. I'll save on taxes when buying new trucks, which could help me expand my business.
- The immediate relief will allow me to invest in hiring more drivers and offering better wages.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Freight Logistics Coordinator (Columbus, OH)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might indirectly benefit our operations by lowering shipping costs, but the direct impact on my role is minimal.
- Our company might pass the cost savings to clients, making our services more competitive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Truck Manufacturer Employee (Portland, OR)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With the tax removed, sales might increase, leading to more stable jobs.
- However, there's uncertainty if this will mean more hours and better pay.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Truck Dealership Owner (Birmingham, AL)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Eliminating the tax could drive more sales as trucks become cheaper for buyers.
- I expect to see an uptick in business in the short-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Retail Business Owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any reduction in transportation costs can benefit my bottom line.
- Savings could be reinvested to improve store operations and customer service.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Automotive Industry Analyst (Detroit, MI)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy should spur increased production outputs.
- Long-term effects will depend on broader economic conditions and demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
New Truck Driver (Houston, TX)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With lower costs, trucking companies might hire more drivers like me.
- I'm optimistic about finding a job soon in this industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Warehouse Manager (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy should reduce logistics costs over time, but the initial impact might be limited.
- We may need to renegotiate contracts with freight companies for savings to trickle down.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Independent Financial Consultant (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The tax repeal will likely offer more capital for trucking companies to innovate.
- There could be broader economic gains beyond the trucking sector over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Agricultural Commodities Supplier (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any decrease in transport costs helps reduce my operational expenses, though marginally.
- Expecting only a small financial impact but it contributes positively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $500000000)
Year 2: $450000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $550000000)
Year 3: $475000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $575000000)
Year 5: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Year 10: $550000000 (Low: $450000000, High: $650000000)
Year 100: $700000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $900000000)
Key Considerations
- Excise taxes are often used for transportation infrastructure funding, and repeal could affect those budgets.
- Broader economic impacts might arise from changes in transportation costs, influencing related sectors.
- Potential increases in sales of trucks may somewhat counterbalance the immediate revenue losses.