Bill Overview
Title: To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to repeal the National Firearms Act.
Description: This bill repeals the National Firearms Act as codified in the Internal Revenue Code.
Sponsors: Rep. Cawthorn, Madison [R-NC-11]
Target Audience
Population: individuals owning firearms, considering purchasing regulated firearms, or working in firearms industry
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The National Firearms Act (NFA) imposes tax-related regulations on certain firearms. Repealing it would remove these regulations.
- Repealing the NFA would influence anyone who owns, manufactures, or deals with firearms traditionally regulated under the NFA, such as short-barreled rifles, machine guns, suppressors, etc.
- This repeal could affect gun owners by removing tax obligations and registration requirements.
- Law enforcement and public safety entities might be affected by changes in regulation of certain firearms.
Reasoning
- The population affected by the repeal of the National Firearms Act includes a variety of individuals, primarily those with direct interest in firearms like short-barreled rifles, machine guns, and suppressors, who will be relieved from certain regulations and taxes.
- Our simulation will thus focus on a diverse set of people within this target group, including private citizens, law enforcement, firearm dealers, and those indirectly influenced by such changes.
- A key consideration is balancing different perspectives such as personal safety concerns, economic impacts on the firearms industry, and broader societal implications.
- Given budget constraints, the policy may also indirectly influence related public safety expenditures and the licensing process for certain groups significantly involved with firearms.
- The U.S. firearm ownership context, with millions of legal owners, will change not just economically through reduced tax burdens, but also in terms of perceived safety or regulatory changes.
Simulated Interviews
Firearm instructor (Texas)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe repealing the NFA will simplify my classes and reduce unnecessary administrative work.
- It's also beneficial for my students who often want to explore owning different types of firearms without excessive paperwork.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Law enforcement officer (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Repealing the NFA might make our job more challenging if these firearms become more accessible.
- I worry about public safety and community risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 3 |
Firearms dealer (Utah)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The repeal could lead to increased sales and a broader customer base.
- Eliminating the tax and registration hurdles is likely to boost my business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Retired police officer (Ohio)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Relaxing regulations might not be safe in all aspects.
- Being a responsible owner is key, but not everyone understands that.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Farmer (Montana)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Buying a suppressor will be much simpler, and that makes my job safer and easier.
- I'm all for these regulations being lifted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Public school teacher (New York)
Age: 30 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think repealing the NFA is a step back for gun control efforts.
- My main concern is increasing risks in schools from easier access to dangerous firearms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 3 |
Mechanic (Georgia)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am excited that I can now upgrade without the hassle of extra paperwork and fees.
- It's a win for enthusiasts like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Small business owner (Illinois)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 3
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More firearms without proper checks is risky for communities like mine.
- I'll keep advocating for responsible laws.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 2 | 2 |
Wildlife guide (Alaska)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Repealing the taxes is a plus for folks like me who use them professionally.
- It makes handling and licensing feel more straightforward.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Gun rights activist (Virginia)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a victory for Second Amendment supporters.
- It may encourage more people to responsibly own and enjoy firearms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $72000000)
Year 3: $54080000 (Low: $34080000, High: $74080000)
Year 5: $58357120 (Low: $38357120, High: $78357120)
Year 10: $64697264 (Low: $44697264, High: $84697264)
Year 100: $140683260 (Low: $120683260, High: $160683260)
Key Considerations
- Repeal would entail substantial changes in federal tax revenue structures, historically reliant on NFA proceeds.
- The industry might see a boost in economic activity, potentially offsetting some revenue loss through enhanced production and sales.
- Long-term economic impact would require industry adaptability to new regulatory landscapes.