Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8336

Bill Overview

Title: Clean Shipping Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to require vessels on certain commercial voyages to comply with standards for the carbon intensity of the vessel's fuel on a specified schedule, with vessels on such voyages utilizing 100% less than the carbon intensity baseline by 2040 and beyond. Additionally, the EPA must promulgate and continually revise standards to eliminate emissions of specified greenhouse gases and air pollutants associated with vessels at anchorage or at berth in the contiguous zone of the United States.

Sponsors: Rep. Lowenthal, Alan S. [D-CA-47]

Target Audience

Population: People impacted by emission changes in global shipping

Estimated Size: 100000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Dockworker (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support the idea behind reducing emissions because I'm directly exposed to them in my job.
  • I worry that if costs rise for shipping companies, it might affect job security for those of us on the docks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Import/Export Agent (Houston, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If shipping gets cleaner it's better for my city, but it could make my job more complicated.
  • I hope the policy leads to innovations that can help mitigate any cost increases.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Retiree (Seattle, WA)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Less pollution would be good for my neighborhood.
  • I worry about my investments in shipping companies if their profits take a hit from compliance costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Environmental Scientist (Miami, FL)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a step in the right direction towards reducing global shipping emissions.
  • There might be challenges in implementation, but long-term benefits are worth it.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Maritime Engineer (New Orleans, LA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A push for greener technology means job opportunities for engineers like me.
  • However, smaller companies might struggle with the transition and cut jobs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Logistics Coordinator (Brooklyn, NY)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Lower pollution means better health outcomes for me.
  • I'm worried about rising costs of goods if shipping becomes more expensive.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Graduate Student (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 23 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a beacon of hope for climate change mitigation.
  • I hope it's implemented successfully and sets a precedent globally.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 10 9
Year 5 10 9
Year 10 10 9
Year 20 10 9

Ship Captain (Norfolk, VA)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The need for low-emission fuel is crucial, but the transition might be rocky.
  • There might be logistical challenges that could complicate missions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Supply Chain Manager (Chicago, IL)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Maybe this policy will push for more efficient logistics systems overall.
  • I'm worried about disruptions and increased costs impacting my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Environmental Activist (Boston, MA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is crucial for reducing maritime emissions and protecting coastal areas.
  • It could empower more regions to adopt similar initiatives.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 10 8
Year 20 10 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $80000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $120000000)

Year 2: $90000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $130000000)

Year 3: $100000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $150000000)

Year 5: $120000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $180000000)

Year 10: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $200000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $120000000)

Key Considerations