Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8315

Bill Overview

Title: Homeland Acceleration of Recovering Deposits and Renewing Onshore Critical Keystones Act of 2022

Description: This bill authorizes the National Defense Stockpile Manager (the Department of Defense) to take certain actions to address industrial base shortfalls.

Sponsors: Rep. Slotkin, Elissa [D-MI-8]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals working in industries involving critical minerals, including mining, processing, and defense contracting.

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Mining Engineer (Nevada)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I expect the policy will create more jobs in the mining sector.
  • Access to critical mineral resources will likely improve with government support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 4

Research Scientist (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy should facilitate research developments and funding opportunities.
  • However, regulatory changes could complicate procurement of certain materials.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 5

Defense Contractor (Arizona)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • With better stockpile management, supply chain issues could be lessened.
  • Long-term benefits include potentially lower material costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 4

Automotive Industry Analyst (Michigan)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If successful, it could stabilize costs for electric vehicle production.
  • It might also attract more investments into sustainable materials.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Small Business Owner (Texas)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I might notice trickle-down effects if material costs change.
  • However, I don't expect this policy to directly affect my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Electronics Manufacturer (Florida)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the act ensures supply chain stability, it can improve production efficiency.
  • However, any mismanagement can increase costs and delays.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 7 4

Policy Analyst (New York)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could streamline national security material stockpiling.
  • Risk lies in potential misalignment between private and public sector goals.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Metal Recycler (Ohio)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Recycling could become more important if extractive resources become scarce.
  • Policies can create opportunities for sustainable businesses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

University Professor (Georgia)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Students could benefit from understanding the policy's real-world implications.
  • Government intervention in markets can have mixed results, economically and environmentally.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired Manufacturing Executive (Oregon)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Long-term benefits could strengthen the national economy and job markets.
  • I'm concerned about potential bureaucratic inefficiencies that could accompany these policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 2: $600000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $800000000)

Year 3: $550000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $750000000)

Year 5: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations