Bill Overview
Title: Preventing Terrorist Transfers to Afghanistan Act
Description: This bill prohibits Department of Defense funds from being used to transfer, release, or assist in the transfer or release of any individual detained in the custody or control of the Department of Defense at United States Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the custody or control of Afghanistan.
Sponsors: Rep. Turner, Michael R. [R-OH-10]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals detained at Guantanamo Bay currently eligible for release or transfer
Estimated Size: 0
- The bill focuses on individuals detained at Guantanamo Bay, particularly those considered terrorists.
- There are currently around 30 to 40 detainees at Guantanamo Bay, but not all are slated for transfer to Afghanistan.
- The legislation specifically targets these Guantanamo detainees, preventing their transfer to Afghanistan.
- It impacts legal and military operations related to detainee transfers.
- Families and advocates for these detainees are indirectly affected as well.
Reasoning
- The people directly affected by the policy are non-US citizens detained at Guantanamo Bay, but since the task is to simulate scenarios affecting US residents, consideration will be limited to indirect impacts.
- Due to the legislation's nature, the policy has little direct impact on US citizens' day-to-day wellbeing. However, it may affect those in roles of military, legal, and advocacy professions as they experience changes in their professional landscape.
- The bill prohibits funding for transfers, which means no monetary impact, focusing purely on bureaucratic obstacles. This indirectly affects lawyers and military personnel who deal with detainee processes.
- Most US citizens will have opinions rather than personal impacts based on their political or ethical stances related to detainee treatment and transfers.
Simulated Interviews
Military Officer (Fayetteville, NC)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy makes my job a bit more complicated as it cuts off certain logistical solutions.
- I understand the security aspect, but it's an administrative headache.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
International Human Rights Lawyer (Arlington, VA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a setback for international human rights advocacy concerning detainees.
- It feels like a bureaucratic move rather than a security necessity.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A bill prohibiting spending is largely symbolic given there's no large budget asking for these transfers.
- It'll create more red tape with little on-ground impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Political Science Professor (Austin, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy can be seen as a political statement rather than a policy driven by immediate security threats.
- As an academic, it's interesting to see how such policies develop public and international narratives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like this affect America's international image more than they do anything else.
- I'm more concerned by how it reflects on the US on the global stage.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Nonprofit Executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our advocacy work becomes more challenging with such stringent policies in place.
- There needs to be a nuanced understanding of who these policies target and why.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Veteran Services Coordinator (Oklahoma City, OK)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Veterans might find policies like this bring back memories of service in complex and morally ambiguous situations.
- It doesn't affect veteran services directly, but it stirs discussion.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill reflects the power dynamics in policy-making between the branches of government.
- While impactful in narrative, its immediate real-world effects are limited.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Military Officer (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Such policies would have been more relevant when operations were active.
- Now, they seem to be keeping status quo more than anything significant.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Activist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While this policy may seem protective, it ultimately prolongs human rights challenges at Guantanamo.
- I'm concerned about ongoing human rights impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Key Considerations
- The current geopolitical situation and relationships with Afghanistan and other countries regarding detainee transfers.
- Ongoing costs associated with maintaining Guantanamo Bay, which do not decrease significantly due to detainee population changes.
- Potential legal and humanitarian ramifications associated with indefinite detention without transfer.