Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8259

Bill Overview

Title: Arms Exports Delivery Solutions Act

Description: This bill requires the Department of State and the Department of Defense to report to Congress on certain transfers of defense articles or defense services since October 1, 2017. The report must include a list of approved transfers to Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, or New Zealand that are above a certain value threshold and that have not been fully delivered by the start of the fiscal year in which the report is being submitted.

Sponsors: Rep. Kim, Young [R-CA-39]

Target Audience

Population: People in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand impacted by delayed arms exports

Estimated Size: 5000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Defense Analyst (Arlington, Virginia)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy makes my job easier by increasing transparency.
  • Initial increase in workload, but that might reduce over time.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Logistics Coordinator (San Diego, California)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More orderly and timely delivery assists my work.
  • Potential initial delays in adapting to new reporting requirements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Defense Contractor (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.5 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might drive better accountability.
  • Remote impact, since our part involves only manufacturing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Policy Advisor (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The bill improves transparency which is crucial.
  • Additional work initially but leads to better data.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Military Liaison (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.5 years

Commonness: 1/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy impact seems positive for compliance.
  • Little change in my day-to-day responsibilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Engineer (Austin, Texas)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • No direct impact on my work or wellbeing.
  • I expect positive changes in overall delivery quality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Defense Logistics Manager (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Timely deliveries will streamline operations.
  • More regulations could cause initial inefficiencies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Procurement Officer (Charlotte, North Carolina)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • No significant change anticipated in my role.
  • Expect improved efficiency in the longer-term.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Senior Defense Analyst (Denver, Colorado)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy enhances strategic clarity and reporting.
  • Could increase strategic insights for decision-making.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Research Fellow (Miami, Florida)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 1/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy will provide rich data for my research.
  • Minimal direct impact but opens new research angles.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 2: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 3: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 5: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 10: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Key Considerations