Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8228

Bill Overview

Title: Death Penalty for Dealing Fentanyl Act of 2022

Description: 2022 This bill authorizes the death penalty for certain fentanyl-related offenses that result in death.

Sponsors: Rep. Gosar, Paul A. [R-AZ-4]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or affected by the fentanyl trade

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Unemployed (West Virginia)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think making the penalty so harsh might scare some people from selling fentanyl.
  • It won't necessarily stop the addiction, but it could slow down the supply.
  • I worry about the families who'll lose a loved one to the justice system. It's another tragedy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Defense Attorney (Arizona)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The bill adds immense pressure on defense attorneys handling these cases.
  • Many argue it's a tough-on-crime stance that may not effectively reduce the crisis.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 4 5

Police Officer (New York)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation provides an extra tool to deal with major dealers.
  • There's concern about sentencing without addressing root causes of drug trade.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Social Worker (Kentucky)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The threat of death penalty might not tackle the addiction crisis itself.
  • More focus should be on rehabilitation and prevention rather than punitive measures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 4 4

Fentanyl Dealer (Convicted) (California)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I know it sounds harsh, but the new penalties are scary and might stop some.
  • I worry about being rehabilitated and reintegrated without a sustainable future.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 3
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 4 4
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 3

Mother of addict (Ohio)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Anything to stop dealers is welcome, but I'd rather see support for addicts.
  • Death isn't a deterrent if the system doesn't fix underlying issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 4 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 4

Judge (Texas)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While harsh, this law provides a strong legal framework against dangerous individuals.
  • However, care must be taken to ensure justice is fairly administered.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

University Student (Florida)

Age: 21 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The idea is definitely well-intentioned, but I'm worried about fairness and potential abuses.
  • The discussion should include more about reform and education.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While dramatic, history shows that death penalty laws do not effectively deter crime.
  • Policy should focus on broader solutions, not just punitive.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Community Organizer (Colorado)

Age: 27 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Punitive measures like the death penalty don't address the reasons why people sell drugs.
  • Efforts should be made on community support and economic opportunities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)

Year 2: $22000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $28000000)

Year 3: $24000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $30000000)

Year 5: $27000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $34000000)

Year 10: $32000000 (Low: $24000000, High: $40000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Key Considerations