Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8189

Bill Overview

Title: National Scenic Trails Parity Act

Description: This bill requires the North Country, Ice Age, and New England national scenic trails to be administered as units of the National Park System.

Sponsors: Rep. Pocan, Mark [D-WI-2]

Target Audience

Population: People interested in or impacted by National Scenic Trails in the United States

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Outdoor guide (Duluth, MN)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe the policy can bring more attention to the trails.
  • Better maintenance would attract more tourists, boosting local businesses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 7

Environmental activist (Portland, ME)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Administration by the National Park System could improve conservation efforts.
  • Worried about potential for increased commercialization.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

State park manager (Madison, WI)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Centralized management might streamline funding processes.
  • We might see greater consistency in trail maintenance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

College student (New York, NY)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't see how this changes my hiking experiences immediately.
  • Maybe more funding means better trail maps and apps.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Small business owner (Manchester, NH)

Age: 53 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Higher visitation due to improved facilities could increase my guest bookings.
  • Not sure if increased traffic would strain local resources.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 6

Retired (Bozeman, MT)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the policy enhances the trail and wildlife habitats, I'm all for it.
  • Mostly enjoy the natural aspects and worry about overdevelopment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Environmental consultant (Traverse City, MI)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could increase my consultancy opportunities.
  • More stringent environmental assessments might be required.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Professor of Environmental Science (Ann Arbor, MI)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A move to National Park System administration may standardize trail research data.
  • Potentially increases educational and research opportunities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

App developer (Boston, MA)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The change might provide more accurate data for my apps.
  • Business impacts are uncertain without further policy details.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Tour guide (Boston, MA)

Age: 47 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Parks-led administration could enhance visitor experiences, helping my tours.
  • Slightly concerned about changes in use restrictions or permit requirements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $35000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $40000000)

Year 2: $36500000 (Low: $31000000, High: $41500000)

Year 3: $38000000 (Low: $32500000, High: $43000000)

Year 5: $40000000 (Low: $34000000, High: $45000000)

Year 10: $45000000 (Low: $38000000, High: $50000000)

Year 100: $70000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $80000000)

Key Considerations