Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8175

Bill Overview

Title: Stop Pills That Kill Act

Description: This bill increases criminal penalties for offenses relating to the manufacture of fentanyl or counterfeit substances. It also establishes requirements for federal agencies to address the use of counterfeit substances. Specifically, the bill applies an increased criminal penalty for possessing, manufacturing, or distributing certain equipment or materials that are used to illegally manufacture fentanyl, an analogue of fentanyl, or a counterfeit substance (the increased penalty is currently limited to offenses involving methamphetamine). The bill also requires the United States Sentencing Commission to review sentencing guidelines and amend them, if appropriate, to include an enhanced penalty for those who knowingly misrepresent counterfeit pills that have fentanyl, a fentanyl analogue, or methamphetamine as legitimate pills. The Drug Enforcement Administration must establish and implement a plan to address counterfeit fentanyl or methamphetamine substances through law enforcement action and education and prevention efforts. In addition, the Department of Justice must annually report on the collection of counterfeit fentanyl or methamphetamine substances by law enforcement and on related prosecutions.

Sponsors: Rep. Buck, Ken [R-CO-4]

Target Audience

Population: People worldwide affected by drug policy and enforcement changes concerning fentanyl and counterfeit drugs

Estimated Size: 30000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Healthcare worker (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see so many overdose cases due to fentanyl. Anything that reduces this is positive.
  • More resources on education and prevention would be beneficial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Law enforcement officer (Austin, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy gives us more tools to tackle the fentanyl issue.
  • Increasing penalties will hopefully deter some criminals.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

Recovering addict (New York, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could make it safer if fewer counterfeit pills are on the street.
  • Rehabilitation and support are still needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 7 4

Judge (Chicago, IL)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhanced penalties might help, but prevention is key.
  • The policy misses on addressing the root problem of addiction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Pharmaceutical employee (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation might improve trust in our industry.
  • Counterfeit drugs are dangerous; eliminating them prioritizes safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Street pharmacist (illicit drug dealer) (Miami, FL)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tougher penalties might push me to lay low for a while.
  • The risks are higher now; it might cut into profits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 5
Year 2 3 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 5

Substance abuse counselor (Memphis, TN)

Age: 54 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If this reduces overdoses, it’s good.
  • Long-term support for addicts is still necessary regardless of the policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 5

Advocate for drug policy reform (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I’m critical of increased penalties; they don’t solve addiction.
  • We need more on the prevention side.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Policy analyst (Seattle, WA)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Resource allocation is key; simply increasing penalties without support measures can backfire.
  • Implementation costs need careful oversight.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

College student (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 21 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's good to see action on this issue; safety is a concern for students.
  • Education on drug safety is also important.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $90000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $110000000)

Year 2: $92000000 (Low: $72000000, High: $112000000)

Year 3: $94000000 (Low: $74000000, High: $114000000)

Year 5: $98000000 (Low: $78000000, High: $118000000)

Year 10: $107000000 (Low: $87000000, High: $127000000)

Year 100: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Key Considerations