Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8148

Bill Overview

Title: Fair Warning Act of 2022

Description: This bill bars an employer from ordering a site closing or mass layoff until 90 calendar days after the employer has served written notice of such an order to (1) each representative of the affected employees as of the time of the notice or each affected employee, (2) the Department of Labor and the governor of the state where the site closing or mass layoff is to occur, and (3) the state or entity designated by the state to carry out rapid response activities.

Sponsors: Rep. Ryan, Tim [D-OH-13]

Target Audience

Population: Employees facing potential mass layoffs or site closures under covered employers globally

Estimated Size: 30000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Automotive Engineer (Detroit, MI)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy gives us more time to prepare for layoff situations. It’s a relief knowing I have 90 days to plan.
  • The automotive industry is cyclical, and layoffs are common. This act could help soften the blow.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 3
Year 10 5 2
Year 20 4 2

Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I feel more secure knowing that, if layoffs happen, I’ll have some warning.
  • This policy might help me financially plan better, especially as a homeowner.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 5 3

Factory Worker (Cleveland, OH)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • At my age, job loss is a big deal. This policy can give me time to figure things out if it happens.
  • I’m part of a union, and this seems like a decent worker protection measure.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 3
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 5 3
Year 5 5 2
Year 10 4 1
Year 20 4 1

HR Specialist (Boston, MA)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Implementing this policy will add tasks to my plate, but overall it’s beneficial for employee morale.
  • I believe it helps create a fairer work environment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 2

Small Business Owner (Austin, TX)

Age: 37 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could impact my flexibility to manage staffing to align with business highs and lows.
  • As a small business owner, it could mean more planning but also more strain.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 3

State Labor Agency Officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy requires us to adapt quickly, but it should improve workforce adjustment services.
  • I expect more structured responses to layoffs can be implemented.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 5 3

Corporate Executive (New York, NY)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our operational flexibility could be reduced, making strategic shifts harder at times.
  • However, it’s beneficial for stable employee relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Freelancer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy doesn’t directly affect me as a freelancer, but indirectly, a more stable job market benefits contract opportunities.
  • It might mean more predictable contracting opportunities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

Oil and Gas Worker (Houston, TX)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Given our industry’s volatility, this offers a degree of necessary stability.
  • It could help me transition if market changes lead to layoffs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 3
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 3
Year 5 5 2
Year 10 4 1
Year 20 4 1

Public School Teacher (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is indirectly beneficial if it means fewer families in crisis due to layoffs.
  • Stable families typically translate to better student outcomes which is an indirect benefit for teachers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 2: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 3: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 5: $9000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $11000000)

Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)

Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)

Key Considerations