Bill Overview
Title: Expanding Trade Sanctions on Russia Act
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of certain products from Russia. This prohibition applies to, among other products, uranium, plywood, silver, and platinum. The President may waive this prohibition for one or more of these products, subject to congressional disapproval, if the President certifies that such waiver is in the national interest. Additionally, the President may terminate this prohibition, subject to congressional disapproval, if the President certifies that Russia (1) has reached an agreement to withdraw Russian forces and cease military hostilities in Ukraine, (2) poses no immediate military threat of aggression to any North Atlantic Treaty Organization member, and (3) recognizes the right of the Ukrainian people to independently and freely choose their own government.
Sponsors: Rep. Panetta, Jimmy [D-CA-20]
Target Audience
Population: Global consumers and industries reliant on Russian exports of uranium, plywood, silver, and platinum products
Estimated Size: 5000000
- Russia is a major global supplier of uranium, plywood, silver, and platinum, thus industries and consumers reliant on these materials will be affected.
- Countries importing these Russian products, predominantly Western nations, will experience shortages or increased costs.
- Sanctions are likely to impact the Russian economy broadly, affecting businesses and workers involved in the export of these goods.
- Industries in need of these banned products in countries imposing sanctions may need to find alternative sources, impacting global trade dynamics.
Reasoning
- The policy targets imports of key raw materials from Russia which impacts sectors in the United States reliant on those imports, such as energy, construction, and electronics.
- The sanctions may result in increased costs for uranium, plywood, silver, and platinum, leading to potential cost-passing to consumers and industries adapting to new supply chain demands.
- It's expected that the policy will primarily affect industries and workers in the U.S. energy and manufacturing sectors, with differing levels of impact based on which materials they rely on.
- The population covered includes individuals with varying socioeconomic backgrounds and involvement with impacted industries, including energy sector workers and construction professionals.
- To reflect a cross-section of affected individuals, interviews consider a wide range of age, occupation, and geographic relevance.
Simulated Interviews
Nuclear Power Plant Engineer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanction on Russian uranium means we must find alternative sources, which could increase our costs.
- I'm worried about job security and potential cost increases for electricity affecting residents.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Jeweler (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased cost of silver and platinum due to sanctions will make my jewelry more expensive.
- This could decrease sales and my profit margins significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Developer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 35 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions on Russia seem more relevant for manufacturing industries.
- I don't see a direct impact on my daily life or work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Construction Worker (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Shortages of plywood could delay projects and affect my wages.
- It could increase construction costs and affect housing prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Investment Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions on Russian exports will likely cause market adjustments.
- It's important for portfolio management but doesn't affect my daily life directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Home Renovation Contractor (Richmond, Virginia)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions might mean finding alternative suppliers, likely increasing project costs.
- I worry about retaining customers who are very cost-conscious.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
College Student (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support sanctions from a geopolitical perspective.
- They don't impact my day-to-day life directly though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired (Tampa, Florida)
Age: 67 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Having used these materials before, I can only imagine the struggle to find alternatives.
- I'm retired, so it doesn't impact me anymore, but I understand colleagues' struggles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Automobile Manufacturer Worker (Denver, Colorado)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher costs from raw materials trickle down, affecting our part suppliers.
- I hope this doesn't translate to job cuts in our factory.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Electronics Manufacturer (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions will likely force us to source from more expensive suppliers.
- It could affect our competitiveness and profit margins if costs rise too much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $7500000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $8000000 (Low: $5500000, High: $10500000)
Year 3: $8500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $11000000)
Year 5: $9500000 (Low: $7000000, High: $11500000)
Year 10: $11000000 (Low: $8500000, High: $13000000)
Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $11000000, High: $18000000)
Key Considerations
- The long-term geopolitical stability and national security benefits could outweigh short-term economic costs.
- Domestic industries may have the opportunity to grow by replacing previously imported goods.
- Potential need for government support to affected industries during the transition.