Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8116

Bill Overview

Title: Modern, Clean, and Safe Trucks Act of 2022

Description: 2 This bill repeals the 12% excise tax on the retail sale of heavy trucks and trailers.

Sponsors: Rep. LaMalfa, Doug [R-CA-1]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by the repeal of the 12% excise tax on heavy trucks and trailers globally

Estimated Size: 80000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Truck Driver (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The repeal of this tax will save me a lot when buying new trucks.
  • I could upgrade my fleet sooner.
  • Expect better profits or pass savings to my customers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 5

Logistics Coordinator (California)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could mean more business due to potentially lower transport costs.
  • Might lead to more job security and even salary increases in the long run.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Truck Manufacturer (Michigan)

Age: 61 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy should boost sales, as it lowers the end cost for our buyers.
  • It might drive innovation in cleaner technologies too.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 8 4

Consumer Goods Retailer (New York)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If transport costs drop, I could reduce prices or improve margins.
  • Not directly affected but hopeful about trickle-down cost reductions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Environmental Activist (Illinois)

Age: 37 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While this could lead to newer, cleaner trucks, it needs incentives for sustainable technology.
  • Skeptical this will truly impact emissions significantly without further measures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Independent Trucker (Georgia)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's a financial relief, as owning a truck is expensive.
  • Hope it allows me to upgrade sooner than planned.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Truck Part Manufacturer (Ohio)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased truck sales mean more parts ordered from us.
  • Secures jobs and might result in hiring more staff.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

University Student (Washington)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Changes in the logistics field could mean better job prospects post-graduation.
  • Interesting to see the policy's real world implications on my field.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Farmer (Florida)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Lower transport costs could reduce my expenses, but this is indirect.
  • I support anything that makes logistics cheaper and efficient.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Retired (Missouri)

Age: 67 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think current drivers will benefit from this, making their jobs easier and costs lower.
  • Indirectly supportive as it helps my old friends in the field.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3500000000 (Low: $3000000000, High: $4000000000)

Year 2: $3650000000 (Low: $3150000000, High: $4150000000)

Year 3: $3800000000 (Low: $3300000000, High: $4300000000)

Year 5: $4100000000 (Low: $3500000000, High: $4700000000)

Year 10: $4700000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $5400000000)

Year 100: $8000000000 (Low: $6500000000, High: $9500000000)

Key Considerations