Bill Overview
Title: Defense Semiconductor Stockpile Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to study and report on the strategic materials (e.g., semiconductors and related manufacturing equipment) it requires to execute its operational plans in a conflict with a strategic competitor (e.g., China) lasting not less than six months. The bill also requires DOD to implement a pilot program to acquire the highest priority minerals, materials, or equipment for the National Defense Stockpile.
Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the semiconductor and defense industries
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The bill focuses on strategic materials such as semiconductors, essential for technological and defense operations, thereby impacting sectors relying on these resources.
- Semiconductor manufacturers are directly impacted as there will be an increased demand for their products from the DOD.
- Military operations and defense contractors will be impacted as they may receive resources from the stockpile to ensure continuous operations.
- Given the global semiconductor supply chains, international partners involved in semiconductor production may also be indirectly affected.
- The U.S. population's security may be indirectly impacted as the nation strengthens its strategic reserve of critical resources.
Reasoning
- The targeted population primarily involves those within the semiconductor and defense sectors in the U.S., which are expected to see direct impacts due to increased demand and potential funding from the Department of Defense.
- Given the budget limits, the policy will have a substantial but focused impact on the strategic workforce directly involved with the semiconductor and defense supply chain.
- Many Americans not directly involved with these sectors will experience minimal to no direct changes in wellbeing related to this policy.
- The potential increase in job security for those working in these industries might improve their Cantril wellbeing scores.
- Indirect security and economic impacts may be experienced broadly, but these are not easily quantifiable in wellbeing scores and may be subtle over the policy's lifetime.
Simulated Interviews
Semiconductor manufacturing engineer (Austin, Texas)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe the policy will secure funding and increase demand, which is good for job stability.
- There's a lot of potential for growth, and this could position us better globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Defense contractor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is crucial for national security, and for my job, it ensures continued contracts.
- There might be some administrative hurdles, but overall it's a net positive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Software developer (San Francisco, California)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased stockpile could stabilize supplies, which is beneficial.
- I do not foresee major immediate impacts on my personal life, hopefully just more job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Auto industry executive (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about potential tariffs or fees as DOD stockpiles resources.
- In the long run, it could mean more US-based supply opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Minerals supply chain analyst (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Likely more analysis work as resources are sourced.
- Could drive up domestic mineral sourcing, which is positive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Foreign policy analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Strategically important, but I worry about international tensions.
- Depends on how this aligns with broader U.S. geopolitical strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Retired military officer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a smart move for national security.
- Might not see the effects directly but good for future preparedness.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Environmental advocate (Portland, Oregon)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about environmental impacts of increased resource extraction.
- Hope it involves sustainable practices, so it doesn't degrade environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Supply Chain Manager (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might smooth out supply issues, which are common in our industry.
- Could mean more work, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
University professor (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Important for national strategy, but needs careful implementation.
- Could shape future administrative and policy studies, which is intriguing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)
Year 2: $105000000 (Low: $84000000, High: $126000000)
Year 3: $110000000 (Low: $88000000, High: $132000000)
Year 5: $120000000 (Low: $96000000, High: $144000000)
Year 10: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)
Year 100: $400000000 (Low: $320000000, High: $480000000)
Key Considerations
- The semiconductors' international supply chain complexity could affect material acquisition and stockpile growth rates.
- Price volatility in semiconductor markets may lead to fluctuating costs for the DOD in acquiring requisite materials for the stockpile.
- National Security demands and potential geopolitical tensions with countries like China impacting semiconductor availability must be considered.
- Technological advancements and shifts could affect the need for different strategic materials requiring adaptive strategy over time.