Bill Overview
Title: To make technical changes clarifying section 503 of the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990.
Description: This bill modifies requirements regarding the development and improvement of cost estimates for federal direct loan and loan guarantee programs. Under current law, federal agencies are required to provide the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget with access to all agency data that may facilitate the development and improvement of the cost estimates. This bill specifies that this data must include the percent guaranteed on loan guarantee commitments.
Sponsors: Rep. Yarmuth, John A. [D-KY-3]
Target Audience
Population: All global citizens relying on US-backed loan guarantees and policies indirectly
Estimated Size: 15000000
- The bill addresses technical changes in how cost estimates are developed for federal direct loan and loan guarantee programs.
- Federal agencies that are involved in administering these loan programs, such as the Department of Education, Department of Agriculture, and the Small Business Administration, will be directly impacted.
- By providing more accurate cost estimates, the bill may indirectly impact taxpayers through changes in federal budget allocations and expenditure efficiency.
- Policymakers who rely on these estimates for making informed decisions about budgetary priorities are also impacted.
Reasoning
- The target population is diverse, ranging from students and small business owners to federal taxpayer population.
- The financial constraints of $12,000,000 in year 1 and $102,000,000 over 10 years necessitate focusing on those who benefit most from improved cost estimates.
- People who would directly utilize federal loans, such as students and farmers, should see long-term indirect benefits.
- Interview profiles vary to reflect those directly using these loans, those only indirectly affected, and those not affected at all.
- The commonness of each interview type was considered based on the American target estimate (15,000,000 people) and the policy's nature.
Simulated Interviews
Student (Iowa)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this policy will provide more resources to improve the servicing of student loans and make repayment plans more accessible.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Entrepreneur (Texas)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Understanding more about loan guarantees can help streamline and improve business operations with better financial products.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Farmer (California)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Clarifying loan terms might help farmers better manage financial planning, but the change is more about transparency than immediate benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Tax consultant (New York)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will likely improve budget forecasting, which is essential for fiscal responsibility, although not directly impactful to everyday life.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Government employee (Florida)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The more accurate the estimates, the better the decision-making, which benefits federal programs in the long term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Policy analyst (Illinois)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While this policy changes how estimates are developed, its impact might only be seen in long-term economic reports rather than daily changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Software Developer (Washington)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems technical and doesn't affect my day-to-day life, but I'm hopeful it leads to better use of federal funds.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Ohio)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If it leads to quicker and better processes for getting loans, it's a positive step, but I would need to see results first.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Teacher (New Jersey)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Hope it makes college debt easier to manage in the long run, though changes will be gradual.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Farmer (Vermont)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The potential for better cost estimates might help in making decision if I decide to take loans in the future.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $12000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $16000000)
Year 2: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $14000000)
Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $14000000)
Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $14000000)
Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $14000000)
Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $14000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy mainly entails administrative changes and data sharing, implying low financial implications.
- It is crucial to ensure all relevant agencies have the technological infrastructure to comply with the new requirements.
- The long-term effectiveness and efficiency in budgeting will partly depend on the quality and timeliness of the shared data.