Bill Overview
Title: Assault Weapons Excise Act
Description: This bill imposes an additional 1000% excise tax on large capacity ammunition feeding devices and semiautomatic assault weapons. It exempts from such additional tax devices and weapons acquired by the United States or by a state or local government.
Sponsors: Rep. Beyer, Donald S., Jr. [D-VA-8]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally who own or plan to purchase semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity feeding devices
Estimated Size: 40000000
- The bill targets semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition feeding devices with a significant tax increase.
- Individuals and groups who own or wish to purchase these weapons and devices will be directly affected due to increased costs.
- Firearm retailers and manufacturers may experience a decrease in sales or a shift in the types of products they sell, impacting their business operations.
- Gun enthusiasts and sports shooters who may plan to buy such weapons will be financially impacted.
- The bill does not apply to purchases by the United States or by state or local governments, as these are exempt from the tax.
Reasoning
- The target population includes around 40 million individuals in the US who own or wish to purchase semiautomatic assault weapons. These individuals are likely to be affected by the significant increase in cost due to the policy.
- A total budget of $1.5 billion in year 1 and $13.675 billion over ten years is significant but might not immediately cover all financial impacts or transitions for businesses and individuals.
- The proposed tax will likely deter new purchases of affected firearms and accessories while existing owners may feel a devaluation of their assets.
- The policy is likely to have varied impacts depending on how much individuals currently invest or plan to invest in these firearms and related gear.
- Some individuals may not face direct personal financial burdens but could see indirect effects from changes in local gun retailer dynamics or community firearm culture.
Simulated Interviews
Firearms retailer (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will dramatically hit my business; it's a substantial part of our sales.
- Customers are likely to turn to other products or potentially the black market.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Tech engineer (California)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I welcome measures that might reduce gun violence.
- Not planning to buy these guns, so personally unaffected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Police officer (Ohio)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Feel this infringes on my rights; however, my weapons are already acquired, so I'll avoid the tax.
- Frustrated that future costs would skyrocket for additions to my collection.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Retired military, hunts regularly (Wisconsin)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My income doesn't depend on these weapons, but I own some that may lose their market value.
- Concerned about how it might affect younger hunting enthusiasts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
College student (New York)
Age: 18 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel safer knowing such policies are being introduced.
- This change would support my community values.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Civil servant (Florida)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I resent the tax enforcement on something I actively use and support culturally.
- There's a powerful societal shift this reflects that I don't fully agree with.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
School teacher (Illinois)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Prioritizing school safety is critical, and I believe this helps.
- I hope this contributes to reduced potential for gun-related incidents.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Artist (Oregon)
Age: 48 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm for policies that aim at reducing assault weapon availability.
- Not directly impacted since I don't own guns, but hopeful for societal impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Software developer (Virginia)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I may have to reconsider dependent on additional financial resources for purchases.
- Balancing personal rights and public safety is complex but important.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired healthcare worker (Alabama)
Age: 72 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Not sure this will change much about crime but willing to try new measures.
- Concerned about how youth shooting sports will handle rising costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 2: $1450000000 (Low: $950000000, High: $1950000000)
Year 3: $1400000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1900000000)
Year 5: $1350000000 (Low: $850000000, High: $1850000000)
Year 10: $1300000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 100: $1000000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1500000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential shifts in consumer behavior as individuals avoid taxed items in favor of alternatives.
- The policy may lead to higher levels of contraband and illegal acquisition of these weapons.
- Impact on businesses in the firearms industry, potentially leading to economic hardship for those reliant on high-volume sales.