Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8030

Bill Overview

Title: Fentanyl is a WMD Act

Description: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security to treat illicit fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.

Sponsors: Rep. Boebert, Lauren [R-CO-3]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or affected by the illicit fentanyl market

Estimated Size: 10000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

construction worker (New Hampshire)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy makes sense because fentanyl is dangerous, but it might make it harder for users to get help if the supply suddenly drops.
  • I worry about more people ending up in withdrawal and not having enough treatment options.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

hospital ER nurse (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Dealing with fentanyl overdoses is a regular part of my job. If the supply is cut, we might see fewer cases but more people needing addiction treatment.
  • The healthcare system is already stretched thin; we need more resources if this policy goes into effect.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

law enforcement officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could give us more resources and authority to deal with fentanyl traffickers.
  • It's crucial that enforcement is balanced with opportunities for rehabilitation for users.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

unemployed (rural West Virginia)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Anything that reduces fentanyl distribution is a good thing.
  • I hope this leads to better support for families and communities affected by drug abuse.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 3
Year 2 4 3
Year 3 5 3
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 5 3

lawyer specializing in drug policy (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Treating fentanyl as a WMD could divert needed resources from harm reduction strategies.
  • There needs to be a balance between enforcement and support for vulnerable communities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

addiction specialist (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More resources should go into treatment options rather than punitive measures.
  • This policy might disrupt supply but can create a treatment gap if not managed well.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

college student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could save lives if it reduces fentanyl availability, but we must ensure support is available.
  • There need to be clear alternatives for users if the supply chain is effectively stopped.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

truck driver (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry that stronger enforcement might make it harder for people like me to get necessary pain medication.
  • It’s important that policies differentiate between illicit use and legitimate medical needs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

software engineer (Miami, FL)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not directly affected by this policy but I hope it makes my area safer.
  • Reducing drug activity would be beneficial for everyone in the community.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

farmer (rural Kentucky)

Age: 64 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Something has to be done about the fentanyl crisis, but it requires comprehensive community support.
  • If this policy can reduce crime, it's a step in the right direction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $750000000)

Year 2: $600000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $850000000)

Year 3: $600000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $850000000)

Year 5: $700000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations