Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Weapons Exports Act of 2022
Description: This bill directs the Department of Commerce to move Taiwan from Country Group A:6 to Country Group A:5 for the purposes of the Export Administration Regulations. (Generally, this reclassification allows Taiwan to acquire certain items and weapons systems subject to export controls on an expedited basis.)
Sponsors: Rep. Banks, Jim [R-IN-3]
Target Audience
Population: People of Taiwan
Estimated Size: 400000
- The legislation affects the export of weapons to Taiwan, thus directly impacting Taiwan's defense capabilities and military operations.
- Taiwan has a population of approximately 23 million people who may be indirectly impacted by changes in national defense and security policy.
- Changes in military capabilities might affect regional security dynamics in East Asia, impacting neighboring countries.
- Companies involved in the arms trade and defense sector, both in the United States and globally, could be economically impacted by a change in export regulations.
Reasoning
- The policy is focused on regulated exports which would most directly impact industries related to defense manufacturing and export. Individuals working in these sectors could see economic impacts, both positive and negative, based on changes in business opportunities and job security. Certain areas with a higher concentration of defense-related jobs might see more pronounced effects.
- Given the strategic relationship between the US and Taiwan and the dialog around national and regional security, there may also be indirect political and social implications in communities more engaged with or attuned to these international relations issues.
- The policy doesn't have direct engagement points with the general public unless their work or investments are involved directly in arms manufacturing or exports, thus the direct impact might not be widespread across the general population.
- Long-term wellbeing impacts would largely derive from economic changes: potential job creation or loss, shifts in regional business dynamics, perhaps resulting in changes in community investment and social stability.
- This policy could lead to increased revenue for defense companies, potentially leading to wage increases or job creation, benefiting employees. However, geopolitical instability may result in negative societal impacts for other individuals aware of global politics.
Simulated Interviews
Aerospace Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy could boost our business if we start exporting more to Taiwan.
- My worry is about the global political situation that might arise because of increased arms in sensitive regions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Defense Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could alter the strategic balance in East Asia, which might be unpredictable.
- It's essential for the US to maintain strategic partnerships, but the cascading effects need to be carefully monitored.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Software Developer (Dallas, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this translates into more projects coming my way even if I'm not directly in the export side.
- I don't usually follow this geopolitical stuff, so I care more about jobs and tech stuff.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be a boom or bust policy depending on how contracts come down the pipeline.
- I worry about increased tensions with other countries like China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Investment Banker (New York, NY)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy opens new revenue streams and merits serious consideration in defense stock investments.
- However, political risks need to be hedged adequately given the Pacific region's volatility.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Manufacturing Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like these typically end up affecting plant operations; if exports increase, my job might become more stable.
- Though global politics is stressful and can trickle down to us as local economic pressure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Retired Military (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This adjustment represents normal shifts in policy but has major geopolitical implications.
- It's critical to analyze all strategic partnerships thoroughly rather than impulsively pivot export control statuses like this.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Nonprofit Worker (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any policy ramping up arms access could exacerbate tensions and undermine peace in these regions.
- It concerns me that this move prioritizes profit and strategy over diplomacy and long-term peace.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
High School Teacher (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a teacher, my role is to inform students about the implications and history behind such policies but beyond that, the direct impact is negligible.
- I believe caution and a more balanced approach in global arms trade might be beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Political Consultant (Miami, FL)
Age: 43 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any shift in arms policy is a serious move; consulting work often revolves around interpreting these changes for politicians and stakeholders.
- It's my duty to ensure that the policy's implementation and potential backlash are fully understood and communicated effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 5: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 100: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Key Considerations
- The impact of reclassifying Taiwan on U.S. foreign policy and diplomatic relations, particularly with China, must be considered.
- Potential risks from increased defense capabilities in Taiwan could alter regional security dynamics in East Asia.