Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8014

Bill Overview

Title: Jobs and Opportunities for Medicaid Act

Description: This bill establishes work requirements under Medicaid for able-bodied adults (i.e., those between the ages of 18 and 65 and who are not otherwise unable to work due to a medical condition, family situation, or other listed reason).

Sponsors: Rep. LaTurner, Jake [R-KS-2]

Target Audience

Population: Able-bodied adults receiving Medicaid

Estimated Size: 15000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

part-time retail worker (Detroit, MI)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am worried this policy might affect my ability to stay on Medicaid, especially with my unpredictable work schedule and childcare needs.
  • I want to work more hours but it's hard to find a job that fits my situation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 7

unemployed (Austin, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This might be the push I need to find work, but I'm also concerned about losing my healthcare if I don't succeed.
  • I've been trying to find a job but it's been tough due to my age and limited education.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

self-employed (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My concern is the inconsistency of my income and whether I can meet these work requirements.
  • The flexibility of freelancing means I sometimes earn very little in a month.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 6 7

part-time caregiver (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 51 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm really stressed about the potential work requirements since I'm already working as much as I can.
  • Financially, I'm stretched thin, and my caregiving responsibilities make it hard to find other work.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 6

college student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried how this might affect my studies if I'm forced to work more hours.
  • Balancing school and work is already challenging without added stress from Medicaid requirements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 8 8

seasonal agricultural worker (Rural Alabama)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • There aren't many job opportunities here, especially in the off-season, so I'm worried.
  • This could be an incentive to seek more stable work, but it's not easy to find.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 6

retired early (New York, NY)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Since I retired early for health reasons, I might still qualify, but it's a concern.
  • Any additional pressure to find work while managing health issues is daunting.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 7

gap year before college (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This might not affect me much since I'm planning to return to school.
  • I hope the policy won't disrupt my preparation for college.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 8 8

small business owner (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 36 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I understand the policy's intent, but there should be more support for small business owners.
  • Balancing my business and looking for supplementary work is stressful.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 8 9

unemployed (Miami, FL)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It will be challenging to find a job that allows me to care for my children.
  • We can't afford to lose Medicaid; it's crucial for my kids.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)

Year 2: $1800000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $2200000000)

Year 3: $1600000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $2000000000)

Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $1800000000)

Year 10: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1500000000)

Year 100: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $400000000)

Key Considerations