Bill Overview
Title: Repeal Tariffs to Reduce Inflation Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Department of the Treasury to report to Congress on the inflationary impact of tariffs and other trade restrictions (including impacts due to the expiration of preferential trade programs) for the period beginning on January 1, 2018, and ending on the date of this bill's enactment.
Sponsors: Rep. Murphy, Stephanie N. [D-FL-7]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by changes in tariffs and trade restrictions
Estimated Size: 332000000
- The bill focuses on tariffs and other trade restrictions, which impact the cost of goods imported into and exported out of a country.
- Tariffs affect the prices of goods and services in the marketplace, thus impacting consumers who purchase these goods.
- Businesses that import goods would experience changes in their cost structures, affecting their financial health and pricing strategies.
- The manufacturing sector, which relies on imported raw materials, could be particularly affected by changes in tariff policies. This includes both manufacturers based in the U.S. and abroad.
- By addressing the inflationary impact of tariffs, the bill may ultimately affect inflation rates, impacting the economic condition of all individuals.
- Given globalization, tariff changes in the U.S. can have international repercussions, affecting global supply chains and international trade partners.
Reasoning
- The policy targets a broad range of individuals and businesses impacted by tariffs and trade restrictions, covering consumers, manufacturers, and businesses that import internationally.
- Given the large number of American individuals potentially affected (estimated at 332 million), selecting a diverse representation of interviews requires highlighting different kinds of impacts from high to none.
- The budget and practical service delivery within the policy's scope indicate that while many can feel indirect effects, the direct targeted aid might focus on those with the most significant impacts, such as manufacturers reliant on imports.
- Responses should reflect varied geographic locations, occupations, and sectors to accurately simulate how this policy might manifest across the population.
Simulated Interviews
Automotive Manufacturing Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope repealing tariffs will lower the cost of parts.
- Increasing competition from international companies is a concern.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 2 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reducing tariffs could improve profit margins.
- Market competition may drive innovation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Retail Business Owner (New York, NY)
Age: 56 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tariff repeal may stabilize prices.
- Predictable pricing helps plan better.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Software Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unsure if tariffs affect me directly, but cheaper prices would be nice.
- Economic policies seem distant from everyday life.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Oil and Gas Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Trade policies greatly affect our industry's costs.
- Lower tariffs might allow us to explore new markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Freelance Designer (Miami, FL)
Age: 39 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm curious about how international trade affects my costs.
- Tariffs don’t seem to impact me directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Apparel Manufacturer (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Repealing tariffs should lower our production costs.
- Competitive pricing is key for sustainability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 3 |
Food Importer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower tariffs could stabilize our operations.
- Market predictability is crucial for planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tariffs seem like they would make things more expensive.
- Policy changes might not affect me much directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Logistics Manager (Chicago, IL)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tariff reductions could simplify logistics issues.
- Cross-border logistics could benefit significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $12000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $22000000)
Year 3: $8000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $18000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The report's effectiveness depends on the robustness of data collection and analysis methodologies used by the Treasury Department.
- Potential political ramifications from changes in tariff policies, including opposition from sectors benefiting from trade protectionist measures, must be considered.
- Reliance on international trade dynamics means that global economic conditions could influence the outcomes of the policy measure.