Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7888

Bill Overview

Title: Bahrain Security Cooperation Improvement Act

Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to report to Congress on (1) the upgrades necessary to enable the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet to address emerging threats in its area of responsibility, and (2) DOD efforts to increase defense and law enforcement exchanges between the United States and Bahrain. (Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet.)

Sponsors: Rep. Jackson, Ronny [R-TX-13]

Target Audience

Population: People associated with the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet and citizens of Bahrain

Estimated Size: 6000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Naval officer (Norfolk, VA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Upgrading the Fifth Fleet's capabilities is an important measure to maintain security in a vital region.
  • The policy will likely involve upgrades that could influence my future assignments or deployments.
  • I'm curious to see how this affects cooperation with Bahrain and if it changes the dynamic of our deployments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Defense contractor (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A direct increase in demand for services related to defense exchanges will benefit our firm.
  • There's potential for enhanced relations which could lead to long-term contracts and stability in the region.
  • I foresee more travel to Bahrain as part of the increased defense cooperation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 9 6
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 10 5
Year 20 9 4

U.S. Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer (Bahrain)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The increased budget for upgrades will enhance our capabilities to handle threats.
  • Improved infrastructure is expected to boost morale for personnel on duty.
  • I'm interested in the outcome of the increased U.S.-Bahrain partnerships.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 10 6
Year 20 9 6

College professor specializing in Middle Eastern studies (Houston, TX)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy reflects ongoing strategic interests of the U.S. in the region, which provides substantial material for my courses.
  • I'm skeptical about whether such policies genuinely contribute to regional stability or exacerbate tensions.
  • My work may indirectly benefit if there's an increased focus on military studies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Software Developer (San Diego, CA)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy indirectly affects my job security but primarily impacts those directly involved with the Fifth Fleet.
  • I might be tasked with developing software for new systems if the upgrades go ahead.
  • I have no direct involvement with operations in Bahrain.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 4

Government policy analyst (Seattle, WA)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill seems like an appropriate continuation of U.S. defense strategies in the Gulf region.
  • Future policy recommendations might build from this bill's initiatives.
  • Any boost in military presence could impact global perceptions of U.S. strategy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Navy logistics specialist (Pensacola, FL)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Upgrades may simplify and improve the efficiency of my daily tasks in logistics.
  • The impact on my wellbeing depends on how these changes affect workloads.
  • The chances of returning to stateside might be limited due to enhanced operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 4

Tech industry freelancer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 33 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As someone with no ties to the military, I don't see this policy affecting me much directly.
  • At a broader level, it might play into longer-term defense industry trends that indirectly affect tech markets.
  • Any focus on new technologies might open up niche job markets in areas like cybersecurity, however.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Defense cooperation liaison officer (Bahrain)

Age: 44 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy signals strong commitment towards improving military cooperation with Bahrain and reinforces trust.
  • More resources to facilitate exchanges could improve work-life balance and operational execution.
  • Tentatively positive about more streamlined operations in the field.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 10 8
Year 5 10 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Retired military consultant (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supporting the Fifth Fleet only strengthens our strategic influence in the Gulf.
  • I'm retired, so the direct impact on my wellbeing is limited, but it's reassuring for national security interests.
  • Could lead to future consulting opportunities based on interest in strategic developments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $10000000)

Year 10: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $100000 (Low: $0, High: $500000)

Key Considerations