Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7880

Bill Overview

Title: Degrees Not Debt Act of 2022

Description: This bill increases the maximum federal Pell Grant award. The bill also repeals the increased alternative minimum tax exemption for individuals and the increased estate and gift tax exemption.

Sponsors: Rep. Carbajal, Salud O. [D-CA-24]

Target Audience

Population: Undergraduate students receiving Pell Grants in the U.S.

Estimated Size: 7000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Undergraduate student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The increased Pell Grant will significantly help me cover my tuition and reduce my need for student loans.
  • I'm optimistic about being able to focus more on my studies rather than worrying about finances.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

Undergraduate student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 21 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any increase in my Pell Grant will alleviate some of my tuition burden.
  • I'm worried about the debt piling up, so this policy seems like a positive step.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 8 4

Undergraduate student (New York, NY)

Age: 18 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a double-edged sword for my family. On one hand, my education is more secured; on the other, the estate plan needs adjustments.
  • Overall, it's a good trade-off for our situation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Lawyer (Dallas, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about the changes in tax exemptions, but we're prepared to absorb the impact.
  • Our focus will shift to ensuring our kids benefit from the Pell Grant changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Undergraduate student (Miami, FL)

Age: 20 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy would drastically reduce my financial stress, allowing me to continue my education without interruption.
  • I would finally be able to cut back on work hours to focus more on my daughter and studies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 4

Undergraduate student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increasing the Pell Grant serves as a relief during uncertain economic times for our family business.
  • I support the policy as it will lessen the financial strain on me significantly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Undergraduate student (Austin, TX)

Age: 21 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy helps relieve some pressure from my parents who are struggling to support all of us.
  • I'm grateful that we will potentially avoid deeper debt as a family.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 8 4

Tech company employee (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The repeal of tax exemptions is noticeable but does not fully alter our financial plans.
  • I see the Pell Grant change as beneficial for many, including potentially myself if I pursue further education.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Wealth manager (Boston, MA)

Age: 50 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 1/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the trade-off between Pell Grant increases and tax exemption repeals aligns with values of equitable education access.
  • It's unlikely anyone wealthy enough to be impacted will see a drastic lifestyle change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Small business owner (Nashville, TN)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our family might be affected in terms of estate planning long-term, but the immediate impact is minimal.
  • I hope the Pell Grant increase aids those who need it the most.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $4200000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $4500000000)

Year 2: $4326000000 (Low: $4100000000, High: $4600000000)

Year 3: $4455780000 (Low: $4230000000, High: $4750000000)

Year 5: $4711067400 (Low: $4460000000, High: $5030000000)

Year 10: $5234588249 (Low: $4950000000, High: $5590000000)

Year 100: $8687001621 (Low: $8230000000, High: $9260000000)

Key Considerations