Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7730

Bill Overview

Title: Blair Holt Firearm Owner Licensing and Record of Sale Act of 2022

Description: This bill establishes new requirements and restrictions with respect to the sale, transfer, and possession of firearms. Among the requirements, the bill generally requires owners of certain firearms—handguns and semiautomatic rifles capable of accepting a detachable ammunition feeding device—to obtain a license, and establishes background check requirements for firearm transfers between private parties.

Sponsors: Rep. Rush, Bobby L. [D-IL-1]

Target Audience

Population: People worldwide who own, buy, or sell firearms, or who may in the future.

Estimated Size: 100000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Gun shop owner (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about the impact on my business with the new licensing and background check requirements.
  • It might deter customers from buying due to extra hurdles and potential increased costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Elementary school teacher (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think tighter control on firearm licenses could make our community safer.
  • Background checks should have always been in place for private sales.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Retired (Florida)

Age: 67 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned that these new requirements encroach on my rights.
  • It adds more bureaucracy to something that is my constitutional right.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 7 9

College student (New York)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful that these laws can prevent future tragedies similar to the loss I experienced.
  • Licensing and background checks seem like necessary steps to me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 9 4

Private firearms instructor (Alabama)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could increase my business as people will require training for licensing requirements.
  • Prioritizing safety is always beneficial, but we must consider accessibility for individuals seeking defense tools.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Factory worker (Ohio)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If obtaining a license becomes costly, it might become difficult to keep my inheritance.
  • I worry about how this might disproportionately affect working-class firearm owners.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Paralegal (Washington)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Better control on who can buy guns seems like a step in the right direction to reduce crime.
  • Hopefully, these checks make the community safer.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Nurse (Missouri)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The process seems cumbersome, especially for responsible sport shooters.
  • Licensing might deter casual hobbyists but ensure more accountability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Rancher (Montana)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried the licensing process will be time-consuming and bureaucratic.
  • In rural areas, we need efficiency, and I hope this doesn't slow things down.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Police officer (Illinois)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm in favor of stricter checks for both safety and professional context.
  • Seeing what I see on duty, any step towards controlling illegal firearm use helps.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $450000000, High: $550000000)

Year 2: $450000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $500000000)

Year 3: $400000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $450000000)

Year 5: $350000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $400000000)

Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $350000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $150000000)

Key Considerations